KillsBetter playLean
Line
31.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
33.81
Hit
58.5%
EV+
+1.2%
Edge
+2.3
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
18
Pick
OVER
Projection
19.45
Hit
55.4%
EV+
-4.1%
Edge
+1.4
L10
30%

Rifler
decenty
Imperial vs BESTIA
LEAN · OVER 31.5
▲ L5 34.0 · L20 31.0
Hit rates at 31.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
7/14
H2H
0%
0/2
Volatility
Medium
±7.88
Previous meeting · vs BESTIA
0/2 hit · avg 26 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-22 · Circuit X Curitiba 4
Dust2 7-13 · Mirage 7-13 · L
22
Under 31.5 ✗
2026-09-19 · Circuit X Curitiba 3
Mirage 10-13 · Nuke 13-2 · Split
30
Under 31.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
31.2
7/13 hit at 31.5
Online
29
0/1 hit at 31.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm decenty is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 31.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 63.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 32+ kills: 0.709 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54%) or blowout (28.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
33.81
Raw edge
+2.3
Cons. hit
58.5%
EV+
+1.2%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.4
Line
31.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
58.5%
+8.2 →
Learned
66.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 29.5-33.5
All players · Kills
57.7%213 picks
This player
100%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 61.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (33.73) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.6 kills vs line 31.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 59%. Next: vs BESTIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 31.6 against a 31.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 33.81 vs line 31.5 → +2.31 (7.3%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.4 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 13.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
15.5
HS/Map
9.07
K/D
1.14
KPR
0.72
ADR
80.8
KAST
78%
HS%
58.5%
Multi-kill
18.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)18.8 · KPR 0.815 · 23.2r
Map 2 (Nuke)14.9 · KPR 0.709 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.709
Base kills (Maps 1-2)33.94
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.62%
Final projected kills33.73
BESTIA gives up (72 series)+5.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 31.5. Model: 61.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.3%
~28 kills · 37r29.6%
Normal30.6%
~34 kills · 44r60.8%
Close maps27.5%
~36 kills · 48r74.1%
Overtime13.6%
~41 kills · 54r89.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 09:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 63.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 64% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
23.2r
+13% KPR here
M2 Nuke
21.2r
-2% KPR here
Total
44.4r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)41.1%
Overtime13.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 31.5 (Over) · avg 31.6 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
31.5
Nearby lines
| 29.5 Over | 62% | |
| 30.5 Over | 60.4% | |
| 31.5 Over | 58.5% | OFFERED |
| 32.5 Over | 54.4% | below BE |
| 33.5 Over | 47.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 31.5
Line movement
first 31.5→offno change
- Pulled31.5Oct 24, 09:55 PM
- Back on board31.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- Pulled31.5Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- First seen31.5Oct 24, 05:25 AM
Map stats
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
19.3
KPR
0.85
HS%
47.4%
K/D
1.29
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.7
HS%
63.2%
K/D
1.19
Cache
4 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.68
HS%
57.1%
K/D
0.96
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.68
HS%
65.4%
K/D
1.11
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.69
HS%
65.6%
K/D
1.03
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.65
HS%
68.8%
K/D
1.17
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | paiN | 12 Inferno 13-3 | 21 Anubis 14-16 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 12 Dust2 13-4 | 32 Mirage 16-14 | 44 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | BESTIA | 7 Dust2 7-13 | 15 Mirage 7-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Turma do Pagode | 16 Anubis 13-10 | 23 Cache 16-14 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | DENDELE | 20 Mirage 8-13 | 12 Inferno 11-13 | 32 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | NRG | 9 Inferno 4-13 | 18 Dust2 13-7 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Without a Roof | 11 Dust2 13-4 | 10 Nuke 13-9 | 21 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | paiN | 12 Anubis 13-4 | 11 Cache 13-11 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Bounty Hunters | 15 Mirage 13-9 | 18 Nuke 13-7 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Galorys | 23 Cache 16-12 | 19 Inferno 13-6 | 42 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | Juventus | 12 Anubis 13-6 | 13 Nuke 13-3 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | BESTIA | 21 Mirage 10-13 | 9 Nuke 13-2 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Bounty Hunters | 21 Mirage 13-6 | 13 Cache 8-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-06 | Bounty Hunters | 11 Mirage 13-10 | 18 Nuke 11-13 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ |









































































































































































