KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.21
Hit
55.4%
EV+
-4.1%
Edge
+0.7
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.08
Hit
55.1%
EV+
-4.6%
Edge
+0.6
L10
40%

Rifler
blytz
Infinite Gaming vs Brute
RISK · OVER 16.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSUD16.5SL16.5
≈ L5 16.4 · L20 16.8Risk · Edge +0.6 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 16.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
53%
9/17
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.37
Previous meeting · vs Brute
No meeting with Brute in his last 17 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
16.2
6/13 hit at 16.5
Online · this match
18.5
3/4 hit at 16.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Blytz is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 46.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~30 kills at 56.4% HS): 0.611 KPR over ~48 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (71%) or blowout (16.6%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.08
Raw edge
+0.6
Cons. hit
55.1%
EV+
-4.6%
Rating
3.2/10
Exp. rounds
47.9
Line
16.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
55.1%
-8.7 →
Learned
46.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
59.5%247 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.6 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 52.9% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 71% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 17 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 52.9% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 71% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (17.38) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.6 headshots vs line 17.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 56%. Next: vs BRUTE, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 16.6 against a 17.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (71%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (71%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.08 vs line 16.5 → +0.58 (3.5%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 47.9 rounds · 2-0 71% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
14.85
HS/Map
8.38
K/D
0.91
KPR
0.66
ADR
73.2
KAST
70.9%
HS%
56.4%
Multi-kill
17.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)9.2 · KPR 0.695 · 23.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)8.2 · KPR 0.592 · 24.4r
Required KPR to clear0.611
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.78
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.11%
Final projected kills30.81
× realistic HS% (56.4%)17.08
Brute gives up (32 series)-2.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16.5. Model: 59.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps16.6%
~14 HS · 40r27.9%
Normal52.9%
~17 HS · 47r49%
Close maps13.8%
~18 HS · 51r64.5%
Overtime16.7%
~20 HS · 57r79.9%
Match context
Oct 25, 03:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 46.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 46% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
23.5r
+5% KPR here
M2 Dust2
24.4r
-10% KPR here
Total
47.9r
2-0 sweep71%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.5%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)16.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Over) · avg 16.6 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Over | 66.8% | |
| 15.5 Over | 64.5% | |
| 16.5 Over | 55.1% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Over | 45.5% | below BE |
| 18.5 Over | 32.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 17.5→16.5-1
- Moved down17.5 → 16.5Oct 24, 01:58 PM
- First seen17.5Oct 24, 01:02 PM
Map stats
Ancient
10 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.71
HS%
57.8%
K/D
1.05
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.57
HS%
55.3%
K/D
0.75
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
19.4
KPR
0.72
HS%
56.7%
K/D
1.02
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.54
HS%
44.9%
K/D
0.79
Cache
3 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.67
HS%
57.9%
K/D
1.06
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.56
HS%
67.6%
K/D
0.76
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Envy | 6 Ancient 8-13 | 6 Dust2 1-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | Eternal Fire | 3 Cache 1-13 | 12 Dust2 20-22 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-09 | WBT | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 8 Ancient 6-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-08 | G2 Ares | 5 Inferno 7-13 | 11 Ancient 14-16 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-04 | SAW | 9 Nuke 9-13 | 12 Ancient 13-16 | 21 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | Wildcard | 8 Inferno 13-11 | 10 Mirage 13-8 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | UNiTY | 5 Inferno 11-13 | 10 Mirage 7-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-02 | SAW | 6 Cache 13-8 | 10 Ancient 13-8 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | RBLS | 9 Nuke 13-8 | 10 Ancient 13-8 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Fluxo | 13 Mirage 20-22 | 3 Dust2 3-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-26 | GenOne | 8 Dust2 11-13 | 10 Ancient 13-10 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | NT | 11 Ancient 13-10 | 9 Dust2 19-16 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | SAW | 4 Inferno 9-13 | 3 Dust2 10-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 5 Ancient 5-13 | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | 1win | 7 Dust2 9-13 | 14 Mirage 16-14 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-07 | INOX Division | 10 Ancient 10-13 | 7 Nuke 10-13 | 17 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | QUAZAR | 13 Cache 13-9 | 10 Dust2 5-13 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |









































































































































































