KillsRisk
Line
27
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.51
Hit
53.3%
EV+
-7.6%
Edge
-1.5
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
8.51
Hit
55.5%
EV+
-3.9%
Edge
-1.0
L10
70%

AWPer
r1nkle
G2 vs Natus Vincere
RISK · UNDER 27
BEST UNDER · UD 27.5PP27UD27.5
▼ L5 23.6 · L20 27.1Risk · Edge -1.5 far below ±3.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 27 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Low
±3.9
Previous meeting · vs Natus Vincere
1/2 hit · avg 25 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Cache 7-13 · Inferno 4-13 · L
20
Under 27 ✓
2026-08-30 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Ancient 13-6 · Inferno 13-10 · W
30
Over 27 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
27.3
8/19 hit at 27
Online
24
1/1 hit at 27
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm r1nkle is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 42.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 26 kills or fewer: below 0.646 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
25.51
Raw edge
-1.5
Cons. hit
53.3%
EV+
-7.6%
Rating
4.6/10
Exp. rounds
41.8
Line
27
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.3%
-8.7 →
Learned
44.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 25-29
All players · Kills
44.9%265 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 64.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 14% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (26.32) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 24.7 kills vs line 27.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.58, HS 32%. Next: vs Natus Vincere, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 24.7 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 25.51 vs line 27 → -1.49 (-5.5%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 41.8 rounds · 2-0 51.5% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.57
HS/Map
4.38
K/D
1.08
KPR
0.58
ADR
60.6
KAST
73.4%
HS%
32.2%
Multi-kill
13.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)12.3 · KPR 0.588 · 21r
Map 2 (Dust2)14 · KPR 0.674 · 20.8r
Required KPR to clear0.646
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.37
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.16%
Final projected kills26.32
Natus Vincere gives up (51 series)-4.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 27. Model: 64.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.5%
~21 kills · 35r85.7%
Normal48.8%
~26 kills · 42r59%
Close maps12.3%
~27 kills · 45r45.5%
Overtime14.4%
~31 kills · 51r22.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 42.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 42% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Ancient
21r
+1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.8r
+15% KPR here
Total
41.8r
2-0 sweep51.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27 (Under) · avg 24.7 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
27
Nearby lines
| 25 Under | 39.3% | below BE |
| 26 Under | 45.4% | below BE |
| 27 Under | 53.3% | OFFERED |
| 28 Under | 59.6% | |
| 29 Under | 62.4% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27
Line movement
first 27.5→27-0.5
- Back on board27.5 → 27Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled27.5Oct 24, 04:15 PM
- First seen27.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.59
HS%
36.5%
K/D
1.01
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.71
HS%
30.4%
K/D
1.34
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.57
HS%
35.1%
K/D
1
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.72
HS%
26%
K/D
1.23
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.62
HS%
27.8%
K/D
0.97
Cache
4 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.59
HS%
37.5%
K/D
0.96
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | PARIVISION | 14 Ancient 7-13 | 10 Anubis 13-9 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | ShindeN | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 18 Ancient 13-9 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 1win | 13 Dust2 11-13 | 13 Ancient 13-1 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Natus Vincere | 14 Cache 7-13 | 6 Inferno 4-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Legacy | 9 Ancient 9-13 | 10 Mirage 10-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | BetBoom | 8 Mirage 7-13 | 21 Anubis 16-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | FURIA | 12 Ancient 16-14 | 18 Dust2 13-3 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | 5star | 12 Inferno 13-9 | 11 Ancient 13-4 | 23 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | 9z | 12 Dust2 11-13 | 8 Ancient 13-8 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | BIG | 8 Cache 8-13 | 19 Mirage 13-7 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Astralis | 14 Ancient 9-13 | 26 Mirage 19-17 | 40 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Falcons | 7 Inferno 6-13 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Aurora | 10 Anubis 7-13 | 23 Inferno 19-16 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | Natus Vincere | 16 Ancient 13-6 | 14 Inferno 13-10 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Spirit | 19 Dust2 6-13 | 10 Cache 9-13 | 29 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | Aurora | 15 Inferno 13-5 | 32 Anubis 16-12 | 47 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-20 | FURIA | 8 Ancient 3-13 | 8 Anubis 13-3 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-19 | Astralis | 12 Ancient 6-13 | 19 Dust2 13-6 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-13 | BIG | 16 Cache 13-5 | 13 Ancient 13-16 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-25 | Liquid | 15 Anubis 6-13 | 9 Mirage 5-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | BO |







































































































































































