KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.03
Hit
56.5%
EV+
-2.1%
Edge
+1.5
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
10
Pick
OVER
Projection
10.37
Hit
49.9%
EV+
-13.6%
Edge
+0.4
L10
30%

AWPer
zorte
BetBoom vs Nemiga
RISK · OVER 10
BEST OVER · SL 9.5PP10SL9.5
≈ L5 10.6 · L20 10.2Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 10 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.59
Previous meeting · vs Nemiga
No meeting with Nemiga in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
10.2
8/20 hit at 10
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm zorte is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 10
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 61.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 11+ HS (~33 kills at 33.6% HS): 0.654 KPR over ~46 rounds. His Kills line is 30.5: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (21.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
10.37
Raw edge
+0.4
Cons. hit
49.9%
EV+
-13.6%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
45.5
Line
10
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.9%
+8.7 →
Learned
58.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 8-12
All players · Headshots
54.4%79 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 40.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (10.28) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 9.1 headshots vs line 10.0 (3/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 34%. Next: vs Nemiga, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 9.1 against a 10.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 10.37 vs line 10 → +0.37 (3.7%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 30% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.5 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.18
HS/Map
5.1
K/D
1.07
KPR
0.68
ADR
69.1
KAST
73%
HS%
33.6%
Multi-kill
15.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)5.3 · KPR 0.657 · 23.7r
Map 2 (Mirage)5 · KPR 0.682 · 21.8r
Required KPR to clear0.654
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.44
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.49%
Final projected kills30.59
× realistic HS% (33.6%)10.37
Nemiga gives up (70 series)-0.1% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 10. Model: 54.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps21.2%
~9 HS · 38r26.6%
Normal35.5%
~10 HS · 43r38.7%
Close maps24.4%
~11 HS · 49r54.7%
Overtime18.9%
~13 HS · 55r69.1%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 61.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 62% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Anubis
23.7r
-3% KPR here
M2 Mirage
21.8r
Total
45.5r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)43.3%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)21.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 10 (Over) · avg 9.1 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
10
Nearby lines
| 8 Over | 62.9% | |
| 9 Over | 57.8% | |
| 10 Over | 49.9% | OFFERED |
| 11 Over | 39.3% | below BE |
| 12 Over | 32.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 10
Line movement
first 10→10no change
- First seen10Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.65
HS%
26.7%
K/D
1.02
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.68
HS%
33%
K/D
1.08
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
17.7
KPR
0.8
HS%
39.6%
K/D
1.34
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.68
HS%
26%
K/D
1.18
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.63
HS%
43.9%
K/D
0.99
Cache
4 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.62
HS%
40%
K/D
0.91
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.57
HS%
25%
K/D
0.71
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Spirit | 4 Anubis 10-13 | 1 Ancient 13-3 | 5 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | FURIA | 5 Dust2 6-13 | 5 Ancient 19-16 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Falcons | 1 Anubis 5-13 | 8 Dust2 16-14 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-16 | Legacy | 7 Nuke 16-13 | 11 Dust2 11-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | PARIVISION | 7 Ancient 10-13 | 4 Anubis 13-4 | 11 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | FURIA | 2 Ancient 10-13 | 4 Mirage 9-13 | 6 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 9z | 3 Dust2 8-13 | 5 Mirage 9-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Aurora | 3 Mirage 4-13 | 8 Nuke 13-7 | 11 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | M80 | 5 Cache 16-14 | 2 Anubis 13-11 | 7 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | FURIA | 1 Mirage 5-13 | 5 Cache 14-16 | 6 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | G2 | 5 Mirage 13-7 | 4 Anubis 13-16 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-10 | MIBR | 5 Mirage 13-9 | 2 Anubis 16-14 | 7 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | Astralis | 7 Ancient 16-14 | 6 Anubis 13-8 | 13 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | BIG | 12 Cache 13-8 | 6 Nuke 13-9 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 2 Nuke 3-13 | 7 Anubis 11-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | FaZe | 2 Cache 2-13 | 4 Ancient 6-13 | 6 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-03 | Nemesis | 10 Mirage 10-13 | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-18 | Aurora | 5 Nuke 6-13 | 6 Anubis 9-13 | 11 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-15 | FUT | 4 Mirage 13-7 | 4 Dust2 13-7 | 8 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Vitality | 3 Overpass 8-13 | 8 Nuke 11-13 | 11 | L | Over ✓ |








































































































































































