KillsBetter playRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.3
Hit
49.8%
EV+
-13.8%
Edge
-2.2
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.75
Hit
49.1%
EV+
-14.9%
Edge
-1.8
L10
40%

Rifler
drop
BESTIA vs Imperial
RISK · UNDER 17.5
▲ L5 17.2 · L20 16.5Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 17.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
High
±7
Previous meeting · vs Imperial
1/2 hit · avg 16 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-22 · Circuit X Curitiba 4
Dust2 13-7 · Mirage 13-7 · W
20
Over 17.5 ✗
2026-09-19 · Circuit X Curitiba 3
Mirage 13-10 · Nuke 2-13 · Split
12
Under 17.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16.9
10/18 hit at 17.5
Online
13
2/2 hit at 17.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm drop is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 36.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 17 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 60.8% HS): below 0.716 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.75
Raw edge
-1.8
Cons. hit
49.1%
EV+
-14.9%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.2
Line
17.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.1%
-4.3 →
Learned
44.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 15.5-19.5
All players · Headshots
40.7%204 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.7 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 12% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.13) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 19.6 headshots vs line 17.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 61%. Next: vs Imperial, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 19.6 against a 17.5 line
Biggest risk: 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.75 vs line 17.5 → -1.75 (-10.0%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.2 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.57
HS/Map
8.25
K/D
0.95
KPR
0.69
ADR
79.6
KAST
73.8%
HS%
60.8%
Multi-kill
19.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)7.3 · KPR 0.591 · 20.4r
Map 2 (Ancient)7.9 · KPR 0.66 · 19.8r
Required KPR to clear0.716
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.13
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.96%
Final projected kills24.89
× realistic HS% (60.8%)15.75
Imperial gives up (59 series)-10.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 17.5. Model: 59.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps30.7%
~13 HS · 34r77.8%
Normal46.8%
~16 HS · 42r61.5%
Close maps10.3%
~17 HS · 43r58.2%
Overtime12.2%
~19 HS · 49r44.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 09:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 36.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 36% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Mirage
20.4r
-9% KPR here
M2 Ancient
19.8r
+1% KPR here
Total
40.2r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)30.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17.5 (Under) · avg 19.6 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
17.5
Nearby lines
| 15.5 Under | 40.3% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 45.8% | below BE |
| 17.5 Under | 49.1% | OFFERED |
| 18.5 Under | 54.3% | below BE |
| 19.5 Under | 58.7% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17.5
Line movement
first 17.5→offno change
- Pulled17.5Oct 24, 09:55 PM
- Back on board17.5 → 17.5Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- Pulled17.5Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- First seen17.5Oct 24, 05:25 AM
Map stats
Mirage
12 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.61
HS%
68.8%
K/D
0.92
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.71
HS%
53.5%
K/D
0.95
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
9.2
KPR
0.51
HS%
60%
K/D
0.76
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.63
HS%
61.9%
K/D
0.95
Cache
4 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.77
HS%
62.7%
K/D
1.18
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
49.1%
K/D
0.98
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.9
HS%
55.6%
K/D
2
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.42
HS%
62.5%
K/D
0.5
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Galorys | 8 Ancient 13-9 | 10 Inferno 13-11 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Imperial | 10 Dust2 13-7 | 10 Mirage 13-7 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 11 Cache 13-5 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Voca | 5 Ancient 10-13 | 14 Mirage 10-13 | 19 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | M80 | 6 Mirage 6-13 | 7 Cache 6-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Bounty Hunters | 15 Cache 16-14 | 12 Mirage 19-16 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | ShindeN | 16 Mirage 16-13 | 20 Inferno 22-19 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | Imperial | 10 Mirage 13-10 | 2 Nuke 2-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | CLANSBR | 13 Ancient 13-7 | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Galorys | 7 Ancient 10-13 | 6 Dust2 7-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | CLANSBR | 7 Inferno 13-3 | 4 Mirage 13-2 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | Virtus.pro | 5 Mirage 4-13 | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | HEROIC | 9 Cache 7-13 | 7 Ancient 4-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-04-15 | Spirit | 10 Mirage 13-8 | 12 Ancient 8-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-04-14 | RED Canids | 7 Mirage 13-9 | 2 Ancient 4-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-04-13 | Vitality | 4 Nuke 4-13 | 5 Overpass 6-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-04-02 | RED Canids | 14 Nuke 13-7 | 10 Anubis 13-7 | 24 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-03-28 | DASH | 4 Nuke 13-4 | 11 Inferno 12-16 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-03-28 | RED Canids | 5 Mirage 13-4 | 2 Nuke 13-7 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-03-27 | RED Canids | 4 Inferno 11-13 | 7 Nuke 6-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ |







































































































































































