KillsLean
Line
31.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
34.05
Hit
56.6%
EV+
-1.9%
Edge
+2.5
L10
44%
HeadshotsBetter playTake
Line
16
Pick
OVER
Projection
19.69
Hit
64.5%
EV+
+11.7%
Edge
+3.7
L10
67%

Rifler
flouzer
Nuclear TigeRES vs FORZE Reload
LEAN · OVER 31.5
≈ L5 31.6 · L20 32.3
Hit rates at 31.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
44%
4/9
L20
44%
4/9
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.45
Previous meeting · vs FORZE Reload
No meeting with FORZE Reload in his last 9 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
32.3
4/9 hit at 31.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm flouzer is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 31.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 63.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 32+ kills: 0.682 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54%) or blowout (17.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
34.05
Raw edge
+2.5
Cons. hit
56.6%
EV+
-1.9%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
46.2
Line
31.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
56.6%
+5.1 →
Learned
61.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 29.5-33.5
All players · Kills
57.7%213 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 44.4% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 44.4% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 9 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 44.4% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 44.4% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (35.09) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 9 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.3 kills vs line 31.5 (4/9 over). KPR 0.74, HS 58%. Next: vs FORZE Reload, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 32.3 against a 31.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 34.05 vs line 31.5 → +2.55 (8.1%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 44.4% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 46.2 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 10.9%
Performance (last 18 maps)
Kills/Map
16.17
HS/Map
9.44
K/D
1.11
KPR
0.74
ADR
80.7
KAST
74.5%
HS%
58.4%
Multi-kill
18.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)18.2 · KPR 0.727 · 25r
Map 2 (Ancient)16.9 · KPR 0.798 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.682
Base kills (Maps 1-2)35.09
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.0.00%
Final projected kills35.09
FORZE Reload gives up (41 series)-4.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 31.5. Model: 63.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps17.1%
~29 kills · 39r30.5%
Normal56.7%
~34 kills · 46r61.8%
Close maps15.3%
~36 kills · 49r75.7%
Overtime10.9%
~41 kills · 55r90.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 63.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 64% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
25r
-1% KPR here
M2 Ancient
21.2r
+8% KPR here
Total
46.2r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.2%
Overtime10.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)17.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
9 series · line 31.5 (Over) · avg 32.3 · hit 4/9 · tap a bar
31.5
Nearby lines
| 29.5 Over | 62.7% | |
| 30.5 Over | 60.1% | |
| 31.5 Over | 56.6% | OFFERED |
| 32.5 Over | 52.4% | below BE |
| 33.5 Over | 49.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 31.5
Line movement
first 31.5→offno change
- Pulled31.5Oct 24, 02:00 PM
- First seen31.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.72
HS%
61.1%
K/D
1.07
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.86
HS%
53.1%
K/D
1.32
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.79
HS%
53.3%
K/D
1.41
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.62
HS%
66.7%
K/D
0.96
Mirage
1 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.52
HS%
45.5%
K/D
0.65
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.82
HS%
61.1%
K/D
1.2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Illyrians | 24 Dust2 13-11 | 21 Ancient 13-3 | 45 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | LPH | 18 Nuke 13-9 | 17 Anubis 13-4 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Eternal Fire | 10 Anubis 13-7 | 15 Dust2 8-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 12 Inferno 7-13 | 19 Dust2 16-14 | 31 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-10 | SINNERS | 12 Inferno 13-6 | 10 Dust2 8-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | INOX Division | 18 Ancient 13-9 | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-07 | CYBERSHOKE | 14 Dust2 13-9 | 18 Anubis 7-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 19 Dust2 11-13 | 11 Mirage 8-13 | 30 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | HEROIC | 10 Ancient 6-13 | 34 Dust2 17-19 | 44 | L | Over ✓ | OT |








































































































































































