KillsBetter playTake
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.18
Hit
66.4%
EV+
+14.9%
Edge
+4.7
L10
80%
HeadshotsTake
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.49
Hit
64.6%
EV+
+12.0%
Edge
+3.0
L10
60%

Rifler
laxiee
Alter Ego vs NEXVOID
TAKE · OVER 27.5
BEST OVER · SL 26.5UD27.5SL26.5
≈ L5 31.8 · L20 31.3
Hit rates at 27.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
75%
15/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±4.58
Previous meeting · vs NEXVOID
1/1 hit · avg 28 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-26 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: Asia - Cup 1
Dust2 13-7 · Inferno 5-13 · Split
28
Over 27.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
—
no series
Online
31.3
15/20 hit at 27.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm laxiee is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 28+ kills: 0.598 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55.5%) or blowout (24.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
32.18
Raw edge
+4.7
Cons. hit
66.4%
EV+
+14.9%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
46
Line
27.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
66.4%
+3.5 →
Learned
69.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
55.9%331 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 84.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 75.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 56% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (32.34) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.2 kills vs line 27.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 56%. Next: vs NEXVOID, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 30.2 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 32.18 vs line 27.5 → +4.68 (17.0%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 46 rounds · 2-0 55.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.62
HS/Map
8.68
K/D
1.01
KPR
0.66
ADR
69
KAST
76.6%
HS%
55.5%
Multi-kill
14.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)16.1 · KPR 0.701 · 23r
Map 2 (Ancient)16.2 · KPR 0.706 · 23r
Required KPR to clear0.598
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.36
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.06%
Final projected kills32.34
NEXVOID gives up (24 series)+3.4% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 27.5. Model: 84.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.5%
~27 kills · 39r45.1%
Normal36.3%
~31 kills · 45r74%
Close maps22.5%
~34 kills · 49r87.8%
Overtime16.7%
~39 kills · 55r96.5%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 42% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
23r
+6% KPR here
M2 Ancient
23r
+7% KPR here
Total
46r
2-0 sweep55.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)39.2%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Over) · avg 30.2 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Over | 67% | |
| 26.5 Over | 66.8% | |
| 27.5 Over | 66.4% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Over | 64.4% | |
| 29.5 Over | 62.7% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29.5
Line movement
first 26.5→27.5+1
- Moved up26.5 → 27.5Oct 24, 09:34 PM
- First seen26.5Oct 24, 01:02 PM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
16.6
KPR
0.71
HS%
60.1%
K/D
1.04
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.72
HS%
52.9%
K/D
1.03
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
15.1
KPR
0.76
HS%
53.8%
K/D
1
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
51.3%
K/D
1.03
Cache
3 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.61
HS%
57.8%
K/D
0.92
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.6
HS%
61.5%
K/D
0.81
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.74
HS%
53.8%
K/D
1.04
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.64
HS%
48.1%
K/D
1.04
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Lynn Vision | 13 Anubis 13-9 | 9 Inferno 11-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-13 | Just Swing | 15 Cache 10-13 | 23 Dust2 19-15 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-12 | Chinggis Warriors | 19 Inferno 13-9 | 15 Dust2 13-9 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | The KnockoutX | 21 Dust2 13-10 | 12 Cache 13-10 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Vitalem Aerem | 20 Ancient 16-14 | 12 Mirage 13-6 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-09 | The Huns | 12 Ancient 13-11 | 18 Cache 12-16 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Kaleido | 8 Ancient 13-3 | 16 Dust2 14-16 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-07 | Legion | 14 Dust2 13-2 | 14 Anubis 13-7 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | The Huns | 17 Dust2 11-13 | 16 Ancient 13-7 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | NEXVOID | 17 Dust2 13-7 | 11 Inferno 5-13 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-25 | QuantumX | 18 Ancient 13-1 | 17 Dust2 13-6 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | Iowa Stormboar | 13 Nuke 6-13 | 10 Mirage 8-13 | 23 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-12 | Club 333 | 13 Nuke 11-13 | 18 Dust2 14-16 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-04-20 | insane players | 19 Dust2 9-13 | 12 Mirage 5-13 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-04-19 | regain | 29 Mirage 16-12 | 26 Ancient 19-17 | 55 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-04-13 | Voca | 10 Mirage 5-13 | 12 Overpass 6-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-04-11 | Akimbo | 14 Overpass 13-3 | 17 Ancient 13-11 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-04-10 | FarmVille | 6 Dust2 5-13 | 19 Ancient 13-11 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-04-09 | Akimbo | 19 Inferno 11-13 | 15 Mirage 13-2 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-04-07 | Akimbo | 18 Mirage 13-8 | 18 Inferno 8-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ |









































































































































































