KillsNeutral
Line
26.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23.46
Hit
55.6%
EV+
-3.7%
Edge
-3.0
L10
80%
HeadshotsBetter playPlayable
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.11
Hit
60.3%
EV+
+4.4%
Edge
-2.4
L10
80%
#79Ranked 79 of 277 on the board

Rifler
mezii
Vitality vs The MongolZ
NEUTRAL · UNDER 26.5
BEST UNDER · PP 26.5PP26.5UD25.5SL26.5
▼ L5 21.4 · L20 24.6LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 26.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.6
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
No meeting with The MongolZ in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
25
12/19 hit at 26.5
Online
17
1/1 hit at 26.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm mezii is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 80.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Neutral
What to watch · Stays under with 26 kills or fewer: below 0.699 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
23.46
Raw edge
-3.0
Cons. hit
55.6%
EV+
-3.7%
Rating
4.9/10
Exp. rounds
37.9
Line
26.5
Verdict
Neutral
Plain model
55.6%
+7.7 →
Learned
63.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 24.5-28.5
All players · Kills
44%273 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 70.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 80% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 6% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (24.35) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 23.2 kills vs line 26.5 (2/10 over). KPR 0.59, HS 57%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 23.2 against a 26.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 23.46 vs line 26.5 → -3.04 (-11.5%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 37.9 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.3
HS/Map
6.95
K/D
0.99
KPR
0.59
ADR
64.8
KAST
74.5%
HS%
56.5%
Multi-kill
14.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)12.6 · KPR 0.656 · 19.6r
Map 2 (Dust2)11.8 · KPR 0.66 · 18.3r
Required KPR to clear0.699
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.92
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.31%
Final projected kills24.35
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-1.9% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 26.5. Model: 70.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps35.8%
~20 kills · 32r92.7%
Normal33.4%
~25 kills · 41r60.2%
Close maps25.2%
~25 kills · 41r61.9%
Overtime5.6%
~29 kills · 47r34.6%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 80.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 80% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Anubis
19.6r
+4% KPR here
M2 Dust2
18.3r
+4% KPR here
Total
37.9r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)35.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26.5 (Under) · avg 23.2 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
26.5
Nearby lines
| 24.5 Under | 41.8% | below BE |
| 25.5 Under | 51.9% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 55.6% | OFFERED |
| 27.5 Under | 58.5% | |
| 28.5 Under | 61.9% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26.5
Line movement
first 26.5→26.5no change
- First seen26.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.61
HS%
56%
K/D
0.94
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
11.9
KPR
0.62
HS%
58.9%
K/D
1.06
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.6
HS%
48.9%
K/D
1.12
Cache
6 maps
Kills
9.7
KPR
0.49
HS%
55.2%
K/D
0.84
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
62.5%
K/D
1.16
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.53
HS%
54%
K/D
0.85
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.52
HS%
81.8%
K/D
0.85
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | 9z | 13 Mirage 13-10 | 11 Cache 13-10 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | MOUZ | 8 Cache 13-8 | 11 Inferno 13-7 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Aurora | 4 Anubis 7-13 | 7 Cache 13-7 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | PARIVISION | 17 Inferno 13-2 | 11 Dust2 13-10 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | Falcons | 14 Anubis 9-13 | 11 Dust2 13-4 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Natus Vincere | 17 Anubis 13-5 | 8 Nuke 5-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 1win | 12 Dust2 13-1 | 13 Cache 13-5 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Aurora | 22 Anubis 13-4 | 11 Inferno 11-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | FURIA | 7 Cache 13-5 | 12 Anubis 13-8 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Aurora | 10 Anubis 7-13 | 13 Inferno 13-11 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | FURIA | 17 Mirage 13-8 | 10 Dust2 13-5 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | magic | 10 Mirage 13-6 | 10 Dust2 13-9 | 20 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Spirit | 20 Anubis 11-13 | 18 Nuke 16-14 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | FaZe | 21 Dust2 13-11 | 12 Cache 13-6 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-16 | Lynn Vision | 13 Dust2 13-2 | 15 Inferno 13-5 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | B8 | 18 Mirage 16-12 | 11 Inferno 11-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-24 | Liquid | 5 Anubis 10-13 | 12 Nuke 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-19 | Falcons | 12 Anubis 11-13 | 12 Inferno 13-11 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-14 | BetBoom | 11 Overpass 13-8 | 12 Nuke 13-11 | 23 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-13 | MOUZ | 14 Mirage 13-9 | 7 Dust2 7-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ |








































































































































































