KillsRisk
Line
26
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.09
Hit
38.1%
EV+
-34.0%
Edge
+0.1
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.14
Hit
43.3%
EV+
-24.9%
Edge
-0.4
L10
40%

Rifler · IGL
huNter-
G2 vs Natus Vincere
RISK · UNDER 15.5
BEST UNDER · PP 15.5PP15.5UD14.5
▼ L5 13.4 · L20 15.4Risk · Edge -0.4 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 15.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
35%
7/20
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Medium
±4.25
Previous meeting · vs Natus Vincere
1/2 hit · avg 11 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Cache 7-13 · Inferno 4-13 · L
5
Under 15.5 ✓
2026-08-30 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Ancient 13-6 · Inferno 13-10 · W
17
Over 15.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.8
6/19 hit at 15.5
Online
8
1/1 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm huNter- is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 42.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~27 kills at 58.3% HS): below 0.636 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.14
Raw edge
-0.4
Cons. hit
43.3%
EV+
-24.9%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.8
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
43.3%
-8.3 →
Learned
35%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
40.7%263 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 35.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 35.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 14% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.88) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.5 headshots vs line 16.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.58, HS 58%. Next: vs Natus Vincere, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 14.5 against a 16.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.14 vs line 15.5 → -0.36 (-2.3%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 41.8 rounds · 2-0 51.5% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.2
HS/Map
7.7
K/D
0.91
KPR
0.58
ADR
65.8
KAST
73.5%
HS%
58.3%
Multi-kill
12.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)7.5 · KPR 0.617 · 21r
Map 2 (Dust2)8.3 · KPR 0.689 · 20.8r
Required KPR to clear0.636
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.29
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.16%
Final projected kills27.24
× realistic HS% (58.3%)15.14
Natus Vincere gives up (51 series)-2.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 15.5. Model: 53.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.5%
~13 HS · 35r78.4%
Normal48.8%
~15 HS · 42r55.5%
Close maps12.3%
~16 HS · 45r45%
Overtime14.4%
~18 HS · 51r26.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 42.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 42% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Ancient
21r
+6% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.8r
+18% KPR here
Total
41.8r
2-0 sweep51.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Under) · avg 14.5 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Under | 32.3% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 37.7% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 43.3% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Under | 52.8% | below BE |
| 17.5 Under | 59.1% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 16→15.5-0.5
- Back on board16 → 15.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled16Oct 24, 04:15 PM
- First seen16Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.63
HS%
58.6%
K/D
0.89
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.73
HS%
56.2%
K/D
1.14
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.57
HS%
59.2%
K/D
0.88
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.63
HS%
57.6%
K/D
0.96
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.6
HS%
62.9%
K/D
0.86
Cache
4 maps
Kills
8.8
KPR
0.43
HS%
54.3%
K/D
0.64
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | PARIVISION | 6 Ancient 7-13 | 12 Anubis 13-9 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | ShindeN | 4 Dust2 13-6 | 8 Ancient 13-9 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 1win | 12 Dust2 11-13 | 4 Ancient 13-1 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Natus Vincere | 4 Cache 7-13 | 1 Inferno 4-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Legacy | 5 Ancient 9-13 | 11 Mirage 10-13 | 16 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | BetBoom | 7 Mirage 7-13 | 10 Anubis 16-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | FURIA | 11 Ancient 16-14 | 7 Dust2 13-3 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | 5star | 9 Inferno 13-9 | 11 Ancient 13-4 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | 9z | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 5 Ancient 13-8 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | BIG | 5 Cache 8-13 | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Astralis | 11 Ancient 9-13 | 14 Mirage 19-17 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Falcons | 3 Inferno 6-13 | 13 Dust2 9-13 | 16 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Aurora | 8 Anubis 7-13 | 18 Inferno 19-16 | 26 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | Natus Vincere | 10 Ancient 13-6 | 7 Inferno 13-10 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Spirit | 3 Dust2 6-13 | 4 Cache 9-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | Aurora | 7 Inferno 13-5 | 11 Anubis 16-12 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-20 | FURIA | 4 Ancient 3-13 | 6 Anubis 13-3 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-19 | Astralis | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 13 Dust2 13-6 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-13 | BIG | 6 Cache 13-5 | 11 Ancient 13-16 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-25 | Liquid | 2 Anubis 6-13 | 6 Mirage 5-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |







































































































































































