KillsBetter playLean
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.13
Hit
50.1%
EV+
-13.3%
Edge
-2.4
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.16
Hit
46.5%
EV+
-19.4%
Edge
-0.3
L10
60%

Rifler
ZEDKO
Brute vs INOX Division
RISK · UNDER 14.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP14.5UD14.5SL14.5
▼ L5 14.6 · L20 15.3Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2
Hit rates at 14.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±6.72
Previous meeting · vs INOX Division
No meeting with INOX Division in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
13
7/9 hit at 14.5
Online · this match
17.1
4/11 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm ZEDKO is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 41.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~26 kills at 57% HS): below 0.614 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.16
Raw edge
-0.3
Cons. hit
46.5%
EV+
-19.4%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.4
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.5%
-8.3 →
Learned
38.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
38.3%261 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.3 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 14% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (13.96) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.8 headshots vs line 14.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.60, HS 57%. Next: vs INOX Division, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 14.8 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.16 vs line 14.5 → -0.34 (-2.3%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 41.4 rounds · 2-0 72% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.38
HS/Map
7.62
K/D
1
KPR
0.6
ADR
68.3
KAST
74.6%
HS%
57%
Multi-kill
13.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)7.4 · KPR 0.648 · 20.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)6.6 · KPR 0.554 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.614
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.83
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.35%
Final projected kills24.5
× realistic HS% (57%)14.16
INOX Division gives up (57 series)-1.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 14.5. Model: 52% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps31.6%
~12 HS · 35r71%
Normal41.7%
~15 HS · 43r54.8%
Close maps12.3%
~15 HS · 44r51%
Overtime14.4%
~17 HS · 50r39%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 41.0%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 41% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Mirage
20.2r
+9% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.2r
-7% KPR here
Total
41.4r
2-0 sweep72%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)31.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Under) · avg 14.8 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Under | 35.5% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 43% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 46.5% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Under | 52.1% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 55.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→14.5no change
- Back on board14.5 → 14.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen14.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Mirage
13 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
54.4%
K/D
1.04
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.54
HS%
64.8%
K/D
0.88
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.56
HS%
58.4%
K/D
0.89
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
16.6
KPR
0.65
HS%
56.6%
K/D
1.14
Cache
4 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
53.8%
K/D
1.1
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.68
HS%
57.1%
K/D
1.04
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.61
HS%
50%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | BAKS | 6 Cache 8-13 | 9 Inferno 13-8 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Sangal | 7 Nuke 13-4 | 4 Mirage 3-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | ex-6666 | 5 Anubis 13-8 | 5 Mirage 13-11 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Phantom | 12 Mirage 13-16 | 15 Inferno 19-16 | 27 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BET-M | 4 Inferno 13-6 | 6 Mirage 13-5 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | mellren | 12 Inferno 16-13 | 10 Dust2 13-16 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-26 | Inner Circle Academy | 4 Anubis 10-13 | 9 Mirage 10-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Four Magic | 2 Mirage 13-1 | 2 Dust2 13-5 | 4 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | aimclub | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 8 Dust2 13-9 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INFURITY | 7 Inferno 10-13 | 16 Cache 16-12 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | SPARTA | 16 Dust2 13-10 | 9 Mirage 13-7 | 25 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | BET-M | 11 Mirage 11-13 | 11 Ancient 9-13 | 22 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | QUAZAR | 8 Anubis 16-14 | 11 Mirage 13-8 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | G2 Ares | 5 Ancient 6-13 | 5 Cache 13-11 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 11 Dust2 11-13 | 6 Anubis 13-8 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-08 | Nexus | 8 Cache 7-13 | 5 Anubis 9-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-08 | eSuba | 17 Anubis 13-8 | 6 Dust2 13-4 | 23 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-07 | NAVI Junior | 3 Mirage 13-4 | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | 9INE | 7 Mirage 3-13 | 3 Nuke 3-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | Acend | 1 Dust2 5-13 | 9 Mirage 13-5 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































