KillsBetter playRisk
Line
31.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.52
Hit
54.9%
EV+
-5.0%
Edge
-2.0
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
18
Pick
UNDER
Projection
17.11
Hit
49.9%
EV+
-13.5%
Edge
-0.9
L10
50%
#168Ranked 168 of 277 on the board

Rifler
EliGe
Liquid vs FUT
RISK · UNDER 18
BEST UNDER · PP 18PP18UD17.5
▲ L5 19.8 · L20 18.1Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 18 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
7/14
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±5.81
Previous meeting · vs FUT
No meeting with FUT in his last 14 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18.1
7/14 hit at 18
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm EliGE is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 18
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 27.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 17 HS or fewer (under ~31 kills at 58% HS): below 0.796 KPR over ~39 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
17.11
Raw edge
-0.9
Cons. hit
49.9%
EV+
-13.5%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
39
Line
18
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.9%
-8.7 →
Learned
41.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 16-20
All players · Headshots
42.3%149 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.9 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 11% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.96) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 19.0 headshots vs line 18.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 58%. Next: vs FUT, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 19.0 against a 18.0 line
Biggest risk: 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.11 vs line 18 → -0.89 (-4.9%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 39 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 10.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
15.64
HS/Map
9.07
K/D
1.16
KPR
0.74
ADR
81.4
KAST
72.4%
HS%
58%
Multi-kill
18.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)8.9 · KPR 0.778 · 20.1r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.1 · KPR 0.657 · 18.9r
Required KPR to clear0.796
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.06
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.94%
Final projected kills27.52
× realistic HS% (58%)17.11
FUT gives up (43 series)+1.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 18. Model: 56.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps40.1%
~14 HS · 33r75.3%
Normal46.6%
~19 HS · 42r45.5%
Close maps2.7%
~18 HS · 42r46.7%
Overtime10.6%
~21 HS · 48r29.2%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 27.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 28% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Inferno
20.1r
+12% KPR here
M2 Dust2
18.9r
-6% KPR here
Total
39r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)13.3%
Overtime10.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)40.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 18 (Under) · avg 19.0 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
18
Nearby lines
| 16 Under | 38.4% | below BE |
| 17 Under | 42.3% | below BE |
| 18 Under | 49.9% | OFFERED |
| 19 Under | 55.4% | below BE |
| 20 Under | 58.5% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 18
Line movement
first 18→18no change
- First seen18Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.87
HS%
56.9%
K/D
1.45
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.67
HS%
46.9%
K/D
0.98
Cache
5 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.74
HS%
56.8%
K/D
1
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
68.1%
K/D
1.17
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.85
HS%
55.2%
K/D
1.46
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.72
HS%
60.6%
K/D
0.97
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
22
KPR
0.76
HS%
72.7%
K/D
0.88
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | MOUZ | 16 Ancient 13-16 | 12 Inferno 16-12 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | magic | 8 Anubis 10-13 | 3 Dust2 10-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | fnatic | 10 Inferno 7-13 | 8 Cache 4-13 | 18 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 13 Mirage 13-9 | 15 Nuke 10-13 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-13 | JiJieHao | 8 Mirage 13-11 | 6 Cache 13-2 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | 100 Thieves | 2 Dust2 0-13 | 10 Inferno 13-8 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | BBL | 5 Nuke 9-13 | 12 Mirage 13-8 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Wildcard | 9 Inferno 13-4 | 12 Anubis 13-9 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 11 Cache 16-13 | 6 Anubis 13-2 | 17 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | NRG | 10 Dust2 13-11 | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 24 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Chicken Coop | 11 Inferno 13-3 | 7 Cache 13-4 | 18 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-09 | 1win | 6 Dust2 5-13 | 11 Anubis 13-6 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-08 | Metizport | 10 Cache 13-9 | 10 Inferno 13-10 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Dhala | 9 Dust2 13-4 | 0 Nuke 0-1 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































