KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.2
Hit
39.5%
EV+
-31.6%
Edge
-0.3
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.88
Hit
46.8%
EV+
-19.0%
Edge
-0.6
L10
70%

Rifler
trindade
BORRACHEIROS vs QUINTESSÊNCIA
RISK · UNDER 15.5
≈ L5 14.0 · L20 14.5Risk · Edge -0.6 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 15.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
56%
10/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.2
Previous meeting · vs QUINTESSÊNCIA
No meeting with QUINTESSÊNCIA in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
8
2/2 hit at 15.5
Online · this match
15.3
8/16 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm trindade is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 68.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~31 kills at 51.2% HS): below 0.686 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (13.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.88
Raw edge
-0.6
Cons. hit
46.8%
EV+
-19.0%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
44.1
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.8%
-8.5 →
Learned
38.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
40.7%263 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.6 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 68% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.6% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 13% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.26) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.5 headshots vs line 15.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 51%. Next: vs QUINTESSÊNCIA, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 14.5 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.88 vs line 15.5 → -0.62 (-4.0%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 44.1 rounds · 2-0 54.5% · OT 13.4%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
14.17
HS/Map
7.25
K/D
0.88
KPR
0.67
ADR
77.6
KAST
68.1%
HS%
51.2%
Multi-kill
14.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)7.2 · KPR 0.668 · 21.2r
Map 2 (Ancient)8.1 · KPR 0.696 · 22.9r
Required KPR to clear0.686
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.1
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.99%
Final projected kills29.8
× realistic HS% (51.2%)14.88
QUINTESSÊNCIA gives up (25 series)+1.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 15.5. Model: 55.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps32.4%
~13 HS · 37r80.1%
Normal43.1%
~15 HS · 46r52.3%
Close maps11.1%
~16 HS · 47r47.7%
Overtime13.4%
~18 HS · 53r29.6%
Match context
Oct 23, 04:00 PMOnline CCT South America 2026 Series 7
Win chance source: Polymarket 68.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Heads upUnder risk — team 68% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
21.2r
M2 Ancient
22.9r
+4% KPR here
Total
44.1r
2-0 sweep54.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)24.5%
Overtime13.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)32.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Under) · avg 14.5 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Under | 31.7% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 37.2% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 46.8% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Under | 52.2% | below BE |
| 17.5 Under | 58.4% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 15.5→offno change
- Pulled15.5Oct 23, 04:00 PM
- First seen15.5Oct 23, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.67
HS%
52.5%
K/D
0.94
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.71
HS%
51.5%
K/D
0.91
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
12.1
KPR
0.6
HS%
44.7%
K/D
0.83
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.6
HS%
56.4%
K/D
0.77
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.76
HS%
46.2%
K/D
1.11
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.6
HS%
54.3%
K/D
0.78
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Bounty Hunters | 4 Mirage 5-13 | 9 Ancient 10-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Procyon | 4 Inferno 13-1 | 9 Mirage 16-14 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-09 | Grêmio | 10 Inferno 13-10 | 8 Mirage 13-5 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | METANOIA Wolves | 6 Ancient 16-12 | 9 Anubis 11-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-07 | Turma do Pagode | 4 Anubis 13-8 | 7 Dust2 6-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-01 | Yawara | 6 Anubis 6-13 | 4 Ancient 9-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-29 | METANOIA Wolves | 19 Ancient 13-9 | 5 Anubis 13-10 | 24 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Sementes do Mal | 3 Mirage 13-6 | 12 Dust2 19-17 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | ALKA | 6 Dust2 7-13 | 11 Mirage 9-13 | 17 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Juventus | 3 Ancient 1-13 | 6 Anubis 3-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Imperial | 1 Anubis 6-13 | 6 Nuke 3-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-01 | ALKA | 13 Mirage 9-13 | 4 Dust2 4-13 | 17 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | Peladona | 13 Dust2 10-13 | 5 Mirage 13-9 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | BESTIA Academy | 13 Nuke 20-22 | 5 Mirage 13-3 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-26 | MEIA NOITE | 6 Ancient 11-13 | 4 Mirage 8-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-25 | Galorys | 7 Anubis 7-13 | 12 Ancient 19-15 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-25 | DAMAJUANA | 12 Mirage 10-13 | 4 Inferno 13-1 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | Galorys | 2 Dust2 1-13 | 9 Ancient 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































