KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.81
Hit
54.1%
EV+
-6.4%
Edge
+1.3
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
10
Pick
OVER
Projection
10.53
Hit
52.9%
EV+
-8.3%
Edge
+0.5
L10
40%

AWPer
torzsi
MOUZ vs Liquid
RISK · OVER 30.5
BEST OVER · UD 29.5PP30.5UD29.5
≈ L5 31.4 · L20 30.8Risk · Edge +1.3 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 30.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
High
±8.75
Previous meeting · vs Liquid
1/1 hit · avg 48 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Ancient 16-13 · Inferno 12-16 · Split
48
Over 30.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
30.8
10/20 hit at 30.5
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm torzsi is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 31+ kills: 0.681 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (24.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.81
Raw edge
+1.3
Cons. hit
54.1%
EV+
-6.4%
Rating
3.4/10
Exp. rounds
44.8
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.1%
+7.9 →
Learned
62%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
55.2%286 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (31.99) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.7 kills vs line 29.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 33%. Next: vs Liquid, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 30.7 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 31.81 vs line 30.5 → +1.31 (4.3%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44.8 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.38
HS/Map
5.05
K/D
1.25
KPR
0.69
ADR
68.6
KAST
79%
HS%
32.8%
Multi-kill
16.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)17.5 · KPR 0.758 · 23.1r
Map 2 (Inferno)14.5 · KPR 0.669 · 21.7r
Required KPR to clear0.681
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.03
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.11%
Final projected kills31.99
Liquid gives up (41 series)-5.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 30.5. Model: 56% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~27 kills · 38r28.5%
Normal44.8%
~32 kills · 45r53.5%
Close maps16.4%
~34 kills · 48r64.8%
Overtime14.4%
~38 kills · 54r81.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Ancient
23.1r
+9% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21.7r
-3% KPR here
Total
44.8r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Over) · avg 30.7 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Over | 61.4% | |
| 29.5 Over | 58.2% | |
| 30.5 Over | 54.1% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Over | 49.4% | below BE |
| 32.5 Over | 46.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 29.5→30.5+1
- Back on board30.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled30.5Oct 24, 09:11 AM
- Back on board30.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 09:10 AM
- Pulled30.5Oct 24, 09:10 AM
- Moved up29.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 08:16 AM
- First seen29.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.63
HS%
27%
K/D
1.13
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.64
HS%
34.4%
K/D
1.19
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.79
HS%
30.3%
K/D
1.61
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.66
HS%
36%
K/D
1.12
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
18.8
KPR
0.79
HS%
38.1%
K/D
1.33
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.74
HS%
34.3%
K/D
1.2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Liquid | 23 Ancient 16-13 | 25 Inferno 12-16 | 48 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | Vitality | 6 Cache 8-13 | 8 Inferno 7-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Spirit | 25 Dust2 13-7 | 11 Mirage 5-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | FURIA | 14 Nuke 13-11 | 16 Inferno 13-6 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Spirit | 20 Dust2 13-5 | 9 Mirage 13-11 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | FURIA | 18 Cache 13-4 | 13 Mirage 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | M80 | 17 Cache 13-9 | 21 Mirage 13-6 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 13 Cache 8-13 | 20 Mirage 19-16 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Natus Vincere | 15 Cache 10-13 | 11 Inferno 13-10 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | NRG | 10 Cache 11-13 | 12 Inferno 13-5 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | Spirit | 16 Dust2 8-13 | 10 Mirage 13-11 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Vitality | 11 Dust2 13-11 | 15 Mirage 13-7 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Falcons | 11 Nuke 6-13 | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Inner Circle | 6 Ancient 13-4 | 12 Mirage 13-5 | 18 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | 9z | 14 Cache 13-4 | 22 Nuke 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-21 | FUT | 15 Dust2 13-16 | 16 Ancient 5-13 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | GamerLegion | 12 Mirage 13-11 | 36 Ancient 19-22 | 48 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | PARIVISION | 12 Dust2 13-4 | 14 Inferno 13-10 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | FUT | 17 Ancient 6-13 | 20 Nuke 16-12 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-02 | Spirit | 20 Dust2 13-8 | 14 Mirage 13-4 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |







































































































































































