KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.78
Hit
53.5%
EV+
-7.3%
Edge
+2.3
L10
30%
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Rifler
Djon8
Nuclear TigeRES vs FORZE Reload
RISK · OVER 30.5
▲ L5 34.0 · L20 30.4Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way
Hit rates at 30.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
42%
5/12
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.72
Previous meeting · vs FORZE Reload
No meeting with FORZE Reload in his last 12 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
30.4
5/12 hit at 30.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Djon8 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 63.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 31+ kills: 0.692 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54%) or blowout (28.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
32.78
Raw edge
+2.3
Cons. hit
53.5%
EV+
-7.3%
Rating
2.7/10
Exp. rounds
44.1
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.5%
+8.5 →
Learned
62%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
55.2%286 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 61.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 41.7% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 12 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 41.7% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (32.26) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.7 kills vs line 30.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.71, HS 61%. Next: vs FORZE Reload, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 29.7 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 32.78 vs line 30.5 → +2.28 (7.5%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 30% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.1 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 8.6%
Performance (last 24 maps)
Kills/Map
15.21
HS/Map
9.25
K/D
1.02
KPR
0.71
ADR
77
KAST
72%
HS%
60.8%
Multi-kill
18.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)14.8 · KPR 0.666 · 22.4r
Map 2 (Nuke)17.5 · KPR 0.816 · 21.7r
Required KPR to clear0.692
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.63
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.12%
Final projected kills32.26
FORZE Reload gives up (41 series)-4.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 30.5. Model: 61.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.2%
~28 kills · 37r30.4%
Normal44.3%
~34 kills · 46r67.3%
Close maps18.9%
~35 kills · 47r73.4%
Overtime8.6%
~40 kills · 53r89.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 63.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 64% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
22.4r
-6% KPR here
M2 Nuke
21.7r
+15% KPR here
Total
44.1r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)27.5%
Overtime8.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Over) · avg 29.7 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Over | 61.9% | |
| 29.5 Over | 60.3% | |
| 30.5 Over | 53.5% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Over | 50.8% | below BE |
| 32.5 Over | 47.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 30.5→offno change
- Pulled30.5Oct 24, 02:00 PM
- First seen30.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.65
HS%
61.3%
K/D
0.86
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
17.7
KPR
0.87
HS%
59.4%
K/D
1.29
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.72
HS%
64.3%
K/D
1.14
Cache
3 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.57
HS%
60%
K/D
0.7
Inferno
1 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.65
HS%
53.8%
K/D
1.08
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.88
HS%
64.3%
K/D
1.75
Mirage
1 maps
Kills
20
KPR
0.95
HS%
60%
K/D
1.43
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Illyrians | 24 Dust2 13-11 | 14 Ancient 13-3 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | LPH | 21 Nuke 13-9 | 9 Anubis 13-4 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | PRIVATE | 17 Anubis 6-13 | 9 Dust2 3-13 | 26 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-30 | Young TigeRES | 23 Nuke 13-4 | 23 Cache 17-19 | 46 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-26 | Young TigeRES | 12 Nuke 13-9 | 18 Anubis 9-13 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Eternal Fire | 12 Anubis 13-7 | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Falcons Force | 16 Nuke 13-5 | 4 Cache 6-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 13 Inferno 7-13 | 17 Dust2 16-14 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-06 | BET-M | 21 Nuke 11-13 | 13 Dust2 13-4 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-03 | SPARTA | 9 Dust2 6-13 | 13 Nuke 13-6 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-02 | SINNERS | 16 Dust2 13-10 | 20 Mirage 8-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-01 | ex-RUSTEC | 14 Dust2 13-8 | 18 Cache 13-11 | 32 | W | Over ✓ |








































































































































































