KillsRisk
Line
24.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
24.34
Hit
36.5%
EV+
-36.7%
Edge
-0.2
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
9.25
Hit
43.1%
EV+
-25.4%
Edge
-0.3
L10
60%

Rifler
Zont1x
Team Spirit vs BetBoom
RISK · UNDER 24.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP24.5UD24.5
▼ L5 24.0 · L20 25.0Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 24.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
35%
7/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.41
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
25
7/20 hit at 24.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm zont1x is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 24.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 79.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 24 kills or fewer: below 0.616 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
24.34
Raw edge
-0.2
Cons. hit
36.5%
EV+
-36.7%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
39.8
Line
24.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
36.5%
-7.7 →
Learned
28.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 22.5-26.5
All players · Kills
41.3%138 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 35.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 80% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 35.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (24.49) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 24.6 kills vs line 24.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.57, HS 41%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 24.6 against a 24.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (62%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (62%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 24.34 vs line 24.5 → -0.16 (-0.7%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 39.8 rounds · 2-0 61.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.5
HS/Map
5.12
K/D
0.89
KPR
0.57
ADR
67.9
KAST
70.2%
HS%
41%
Multi-kill
12.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)11.5 · KPR 0.579 · 20.1r
Map 2 (Mirage)13 · KPR 0.666 · 19.7r
Required KPR to clear0.616
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.76
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.12%
Final projected kills24.49
BetBoom gives up (64 series)+2.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 24.5. Model: 51.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~20 kills · 33r81.2%
Normal40.6%
~25 kills · 40r51.4%
Close maps27.2%
~26 kills · 43r39.6%
Overtime7.8%
~30 kills · 49r17.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 79.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 80% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
20.1r
-7% KPR here
M2 Mirage
19.7r
+7% KPR here
Total
39.8r
2-0 sweep61.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 24.5 (Under) · avg 24.6 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
24.5
Nearby lines
| 22.5 Under | 19.1% | below BE |
| 23.5 Under | 27.6% | below BE |
| 24.5 Under | 36.5% | OFFERED |
| 25.5 Under | 47.4% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 58.8% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 24.5
Line movement
first 24.5→24.5no change
- First seen24.5Oct 23, 12:41 PM
Map stats
Dust2
12 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.53
HS%
41.6%
K/D
0.87
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
39.4%
K/D
0.9
Cache
7 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.54
HS%
43%
K/D
0.88
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.62
HS%
39.5%
K/D
0.99
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.56
HS%
42.4%
K/D
0.82
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.57
HS%
39.5%
K/D
0.88
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Aurora | 15 Mirage 9-13 | 8 Anubis 6-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | MOUZ | 11 Dust2 7-13 | 15 Mirage 13-5 | 26 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Falcons | 9 Mirage 13-8 | 10 Anubis 13-10 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | M80 | 13 Dust2 13-6 | 13 Cache 13-10 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 1win | 5 Cache 5-13 | 21 Anubis 9-13 | 26 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | MOUZ | 7 Dust2 5-13 | 17 Mirage 11-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | PARIVISION | 9 Ancient 11-13 | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | ShindeN | 12 Dust2 11-13 | 13 Nuke 13-11 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-06 | MOUZ | 13 Dust2 13-8 | 12 Mirage 11-13 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Falcons | 12 Nuke 13-8 | 20 Ancient 13-11 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FURIA | 12 Ancient 13-10 | 13 Cache 13-5 | 25 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | G2 | 9 Dust2 13-6 | 9 Cache 13-9 | 18 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | DENDELE | 17 Ancient 13-8 | 10 Cache 13-7 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FUT | 15 Cache 10-13 | 17 Anubis 16-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | Legacy | 16 Dust2 13-7 | 10 Ancient 13-9 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Vitality | 10 Anubis 13-11 | 18 Nuke 14-16 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | B8 | 5 Dust2 13-9 | 15 Mirage 13-9 | 20 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-15 | BIG | 14 Cache 9-13 | 11 Dust2 13-10 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Luminosity | 13 Ancient 13-3 | 20 Dust2 19-15 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-02 | MOUZ | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 11 Mirage 4-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | BO |







































































































































































