KillsRisk
Line
27
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.15
Hit
43.7%
EV+
-24.3%
Edge
+0.1
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
9.23
Hit
47.5%
EV+
-17.8%
Edge
-0.3
L10
60%

AWPer
r1nkle
G2 vs Aurora
RISK · UNDER 9.5
BEST UNDER · PP 9.5PP9.5UD8.5
▲ L5 10.2 · L20 8.9Risk · Edge -0.3 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 9.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Low
±2.96
Previous meeting · vs Aurora
1/2 hit · avg 12.5 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-31 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Anubis 7-13 · Inferno 19-16 · Split
8
Under 9.5 ✓
2026-08-26 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Inferno 13-5 · Anubis 16-12 · W
17
Over 9.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
8.9
13/20 hit at 9.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm r1nkle is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 9.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 40.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 9 HS or fewer (under ~31 kills at 32.3% HS): below 0.675 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (16.7%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
9.23
Raw edge
-0.3
Cons. hit
47.5%
EV+
-17.8%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
43.6
Line
9.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47.5%
-8.6 →
Learned
38.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 7.5-11.5
All players · Headshots
44.4%72 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.3 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 17% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (8.82) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 8.8 headshots vs line 9.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.57, HS 32%. Next: vs Aurora, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 8.8 against a 9.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 9.23 vs line 9.5 → -0.27 (-2.8%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 43.6 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.85
HS/Map
4.47
K/D
1.07
KPR
0.57
ADR
61.4
KAST
72.7%
HS%
32.3%
Multi-kill
13.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)4 · KPR 0.586 · 21r
Map 2 (Dust2)4.8 · KPR 0.662 · 22.6r
Required KPR to clear0.675
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.27
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.13%
Final projected kills27.3
× realistic HS% (32.3%)9.23
Aurora gives up (91 series)-0.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 9.5. Model: 53.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.9%
~8 HS · 37r74.3%
Normal46.3%
~9 HS · 43r57.8%
Close maps14.1%
~10 HS · 47r47.6%
Overtime16.7%
~11 HS · 53r33%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 40.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 40% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Ancient
21r
+3% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.6r
+16% KPR here
Total
43.6r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 9.5 (Under) · avg 8.8 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
9.5
Nearby lines
| 7.5 Under | 30% | below BE |
| 8.5 Under | 37.4% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 47.5% | OFFERED |
| 10.5 Under | 55.1% | below BE |
| 11.5 Under | 62.8% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 9.5
Line movement
first 9.5→9.5no change
- First seen9.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.59
HS%
36.5%
K/D
1.01
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.7
HS%
32%
K/D
1.23
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.57
HS%
35.1%
K/D
1
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
25.9%
K/D
1.27
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.64
HS%
25.4%
K/D
1
Cache
4 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.59
HS%
37.5%
K/D
0.96
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.38
HS%
22.2%
K/D
0.64
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Natus Vincere | 2 Nuke 11-13 | 10 Dust2 19-22 | 12 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | PARIVISION | 5 Ancient 7-13 | 2 Anubis 13-9 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | ShindeN | 7 Dust2 13-6 | 7 Ancient 13-9 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 1win | 5 Dust2 11-13 | 6 Ancient 13-1 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Natus Vincere | 5 Cache 7-13 | 2 Inferno 4-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Legacy | 3 Ancient 9-13 | 1 Mirage 10-13 | 4 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | BetBoom | 4 Mirage 7-13 | 7 Anubis 16-13 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | FURIA | 4 Ancient 16-14 | 5 Dust2 13-3 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | 5star | 3 Inferno 13-9 | 4 Ancient 13-4 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | 9z | 4 Dust2 11-13 | 2 Ancient 13-8 | 6 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | BIG | 2 Cache 8-13 | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Astralis | 4 Ancient 9-13 | 5 Mirage 19-17 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Falcons | 4 Inferno 6-13 | 1 Dust2 9-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Aurora | 1 Anubis 7-13 | 7 Inferno 19-16 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | Natus Vincere | 4 Ancient 13-6 | 3 Inferno 13-10 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Spirit | 5 Dust2 6-13 | 4 Cache 9-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | Aurora | 8 Inferno 13-5 | 9 Anubis 16-12 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-20 | FURIA | 5 Ancient 3-13 | 2 Anubis 13-3 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-19 | Astralis | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 4 Dust2 13-6 | 10 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-13 | BIG | 7 Cache 13-5 | 4 Ancient 13-16 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |








































































































































































