KillsBetter playLean
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.79
Hit
58.8%
EV+
+1.8%
Edge
-2.7
L10
70%
HeadshotsLean
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.67
Hit
56.1%
EV+
-2.8%
Edge
-1.8
L10
50%

Rifler
abr
MEIA NOITE vs Tropa do KinGui
LEAN · UNDER 15.5
≈ L5 14.4 · L20 14.9
Hit rates at 15.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
53%
9/17
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.79
Previous meeting · vs Tropa do KinGui
No meeting with Tropa do KinGui in his last 17 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
14.9
9/17 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm abr is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 35.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 53.4% HS): below 0.711 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (11.5%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
13.67
Raw edge
-1.8
Cons. hit
56.1%
EV+
-2.8%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
40.8
Line
15.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
56.1%
-8.7 →
Learned
47.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
40.7%263 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 68.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.8 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 52.9% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 17 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 52.9% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 12% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (13.36) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.8 headshots vs line 15.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.63, HS 53%. Next: vs Tropa do KinGui, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 14.8 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.67 vs line 15.5 → -1.83 (-11.8%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.8 rounds · 2-0 47% · OT 11.5%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
13.94
HS/Map
7.44
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.63
ADR
71.3
KAST
75.3%
HS%
53.4%
Multi-kill
16.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)6.8 · KPR 0.621 · 20.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)6.6 · KPR 0.609 · 20.3r
Required KPR to clear0.711
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.1
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.36%
Final projected kills25.01
× realistic HS% (53.4%)13.67
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 15.5. Model: 68.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25%
~12 HS · 34r87.4%
Normal35%
~14 HS · 40r71.6%
Close maps28.5%
~15 HS · 44r60.5%
Overtime11.5%
~17 HS · 50r40.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMOnline CCT South America 2026 Series 7
Win chance source: Polymarket 35.0%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 35% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Ancient
20.5r
+5% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.3r
+3% KPR here
Total
40.8r
2-0 sweep47%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)40%
Overtime11.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Under) · avg 14.8 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Under | 42.5% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 48.6% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 56.1% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Under | 61.4% | |
| 17.5 Under | 64.3% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 15.5→offno change
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 04:12 PM
- Back on board15.5 → 15.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen15.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.67
HS%
48.7%
K/D
1
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.65
HS%
56.8%
K/D
1.12
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.55
HS%
65.3%
K/D
0.84
Cache
3 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.73
HS%
57.4%
K/D
1.27
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.77
HS%
46.3%
K/D
1.02
Mirage
3 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.67
HS%
47.5%
K/D
0.93
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Procyon | 3 Inferno 2-13 | 5 Dust2 13-9 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Galorys | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 7 Ancient 6-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | ALKA | 6 Ancient 13-6 | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-08 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 10 Inferno 10-13 | 8 Ancient 13-10 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-30 | METANOIA Wolves | 5 Ancient 6-13 | 6 Dust2 13-11 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-29 | ALKA | 4 Nuke 7-13 | 11 Dust2 9-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 8 Dust2 13-4 | 5 Ancient 13-8 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | ALKA | 8 Nuke 13-10 | 13 Dust2 12-16 | 21 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | Low Cortisol BR | 6 Ancient 8-13 | 5 Dust2 13-6 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Turma do Pagode | 12 Nuke 11-13 | 4 Dust2 11-13 | 16 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Mira | 5 Dust2 2-13 | 10 Ancient 16-12 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-19 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 8 Ancient 8-13 | 9 Cache 13-16 | 17 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | Bounty Hunters | 5 Cache 4-13 | 6 Mirage 8-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | Grêmio | 8 Nuke 13-9 | 8 Ancient 11-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-01 | Procyon | 8 Ancient 10-13 | 6 Inferno 2-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | ex-MIBR Academy | 6 Ancient 5-13 | 8 Mirage 13-16 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-27 | Sementes do Mal | 13 Cache 13-5 | 5 Mirage 4-6 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | BO |









































































































































































