KillsLean
Line
24.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.41
Hit
62.6%
EV+
+8.4%
Edge
+3.9
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playTake
Line
13.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.24
Hit
66.3%
EV+
+14.8%
Edge
+3.7
L10
80%

Rifler
stefienson
ex-6666 vs FOKUS
LEAN · OVER 24.5
▼ L5 25.8 · L20 27.3
Hit rates at 24.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±5.8
Previous meeting · vs FOKUS
1/1 hit · avg 25 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · NODWIN Clutch Series 13
Ancient 3-13 · Nuke 13-16 · L
25
Over 24.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
27.3
11/20 hit at 24.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm stefienson is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 25.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 25+ kills: 0.544 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (22.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
28.41
Raw edge
+3.9
Cons. hit
62.6%
EV+
+8.4%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
45
Line
24.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
62.6%
-2.3 →
Learned
60.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 22.5-26.5
All players · Kills
58.7%138 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 75% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.53) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 26.4 kills vs line 24.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.60, HS 59%. Next: vs FOKUS, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 26.4 against a 24.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 28.41 vs line 24.5 → +3.91 (16.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 45 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.65
HS/Map
8.1
K/D
0.86
KPR
0.6
ADR
69.4
KAST
72.8%
HS%
59.3%
Multi-kill
14.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)12.7 · KPR 0.603 · 21r
Map 2 (Nuke)16.9 · KPR 0.702 · 24r
Required KPR to clear0.544
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.51
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.06%
Final projected kills29.53
FOKUS gives up (48 series)+2.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 24.5. Model: 75% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.2%
~24 kills · 38r43.5%
Normal38.6%
~28 kills · 44r71%
Close maps24.8%
~30 kills · 48r85.3%
Overtime14.4%
~34 kills · 54r95.3%
Match context
Oct 24, 08:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Anubis
21r
+1% KPR here
M2 Nuke
24r
+17% KPR here
Total
45r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)39.2%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 24.5 (Over) · avg 26.4 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
24.5
Nearby lines
| 22.5 Over | 66.3% | |
| 23.5 Over | 65.3% | |
| 24.5 Over | 62.6% | OFFERED |
| 25.5 Over | 59.1% | |
| 26.5 Over | 54.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 25.5
Line movement
first 24.5→offno change
- Pulled23.5Oct 24, 08:00 AM
- Moved down24.5 → 23.5Oct 24, 01:02 AM
- First seen24.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.6
HS%
61.1%
K/D
0.84
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
18.5
KPR
0.74
HS%
64.9%
K/D
1.07
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.58
HS%
61.4%
K/D
0.77
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.6
HS%
60.8%
K/D
0.8
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.53
HS%
50.7%
K/D
0.74
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.63
HS%
46.4%
K/D
0.89
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | FOKUS | 7 Ancient 3-13 | 18 Nuke 13-16 | 25 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | 6yuBoJlbl | 11 Mirage 11-13 | 15 Nuke 13-10 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Acend | 9 Dust2 6-13 | 15 Inferno 14-16 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-22 | Bushido Wildcats | 12 Anubis 13-4 | 11 Inferno 13-9 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | Saint Sinners | 21 Dust2 13-5 | 10 Ancient 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | BRUTE | 7 Anubis 8-13 | 13 Mirage 11-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | Lavked | 14 Nuke 13-8 | 10 Dust2 10-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | los kogutos | 9 Anubis 10-13 | 12 Nuke 11-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Fire Flux | 29 Nuke 13-10 | 12 Inferno 10-13 | 41 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Privateer | 13 Ancient 13-5 | 16 Nuke 13-9 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | G2 Ares | 12 Inferno 13-11 | 11 Dust2 13-2 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | mellren | 9 Dust2 4-13 | 17 Ancient 13-11 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Enjoy | 7 Anubis 10-13 | 13 Ancient 13-10 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Bushido Wildcats | 14 Dust2 13-9 | 12 Anubis 13-5 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | los kogutos | 21 Nuke 16-14 | 17 Mirage 9-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-14 | GenOne | 14 Ancient 9-13 | 17 Inferno 16-12 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-13 | Black Phoenix | 5 Dust2 4-13 | 13 Anubis 8-13 | 18 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-12 | megoshort | 15 Mirage 13-6 | 26 Anubis 16-13 | 41 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | benched gods | 9 Anubis 3-13 | 9 Dust2 13-9 | 18 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Bebop | 18 Anubis 13-6 | 23 Nuke 16-12 | 41 | W | Over ✓ | OT |








































































































































































