KillsRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
25.7
Hit
45.5%
EV+
-21.2%
Edge
+0.2
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
13.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
14
Hit
52%
EV+
-10.0%
Edge
+0.5
L10
60%

Rifler
Vacancy
The Last Resort vs G2 Ares
RISK · OVER 25.5
≈ L5 27.0 · L20 26.4Risk · Edge +0.2 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 25.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
67%
2/3
Volatility
Low
±5.04
Previous meeting · vs G2 Ares
2/3 hit · avg 28.3 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-14 · CCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Ancient 13-10 · Inferno 8-13 · Split
21
Under 25.5 ✗
2026-09-25 · Hotspawn 10k Showdown: Closed Qualifier
Inferno 11-13 · Cache 8-13 · L
26
Over 25.5 ✓
2026-09-04 · CCT Europe 2026 Series 8
Inferno 13-9 · Cache 19-17 · W
38
Over 25.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
27
1/2 hit at 25.5
Online
26.4
9/18 hit at 25.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm Vacancy is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 25.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 26+ kills: 0.616 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (56.5%) or blowout (27.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
25.7
Raw edge
+0.2
Cons. hit
45.5%
EV+
-21.2%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.4
Line
25.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
45.5%
+8.7 →
Learned
54.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 23.5-27.5
All players · Kills
57%207 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Blowout loss risk — team only 24% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 56% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (25.14) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.7 kills vs line 25.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 54%. Next: vs G2 Ares, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 27.7 against a 25.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 25.7 vs line 25.5 → +0.2 (0.8%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 41.4 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.22
HS/Map
7.17
K/D
0.87
KPR
0.65
ADR
72.2
KAST
71.2%
HS%
54.3%
Multi-kill
16.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)12.5 · KPR 0.597 · 21r
Map 2 (Anubis)12.7 · KPR 0.622 · 20.4r
Required KPR to clear0.616
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.23
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.34%
Final projected kills25.14
G2 Ares gives up (69 series)+9.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 25.5. Model: 51.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.7%
~22 kills · 35r20.2%
Normal49.8%
~26 kills · 42r51.9%
Close maps5.8%
~28 kills · 44r63.4%
Overtime16.7%
~31 kills · 50r84.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 12:00 PMLANHotspawn 10k Showdown
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 24% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Inferno
21r
-3% KPR here
M2 Anubis
20.4r
+1% KPR here
Total
41.4r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.7%
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Inferno / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 25.5 (Over) · avg 27.7 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
25.5
Nearby lines
| 23.5 Over | 59.6% | |
| 24.5 Over | 56% | below BE |
| 25.5 Over | 45.5% | OFFERED |
| 26.5 Over | 38.8% | below BE |
| 27.5 Over | 34.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 25.5
Line movement
first 25.5→offno change
- Pulled25.5Oct 24, 12:12 PM
- First seen25.5Oct 23, 11:11 PM
Map stats
Ancient
10 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.63
HS%
55.4%
K/D
0.99
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.63
HS%
54.5%
K/D
0.89
Cache
6 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.68
HS%
56.4%
K/D
0.96
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.52
HS%
42.9%
K/D
0.72
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.48
HS%
62.5%
K/D
0.7
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.67
HS%
58.1%
K/D
0.98
Mirage
2 maps
Kills
8.5
KPR
0.42
HS%
52.9%
K/D
0.55
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Aces | 11 Mirage 9-13 | 22 Cache 9-13 | 33 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Sökerorg | 21 Ancient 13-4 | 14 Nuke 13-8 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Spirit Academy | 12 Ancient 7-13 | 13 Anubis 6-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | G2 Ares | 14 Ancient 13-10 | 7 Inferno 8-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-08 | Privateer | 11 Ancient 13-8 | 10 Cache 8-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | Saint Sinners | 6 Mirage 5-13 | 19 Inferno 13-6 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | Privateer | 18 Ancient 13-11 | 16 Nuke 13-8 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Famalicão | 16 Inferno 10-13 | 9 Ancient 7-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | G2 Ares | 14 Inferno 11-13 | 12 Cache 8-13 | 26 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Nexus | 15 Cache 5-13 | 17 Ancient 16-14 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-19 | Ryvex | 12 Inferno 8-13 | 11 Dust2 13-3 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-11 | SINNERS | 5 Dust2 2-13 | 10 Inferno 6-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | INOX Division | 20 Cache 16-14 | 18 Inferno 16-13 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-07 | MOUZ NXT | 16 Anubis 13-11 | 19 Ancient 13-6 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-04 | G2 Ares | 16 Inferno 13-9 | 22 Cache 19-17 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | Leo | 7 Nuke 5-13 | 5 Ancient 6-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Privateer | 18 Nuke 16-14 | 13 Dust2 13-9 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-19 | OG | 8 Nuke 10-13 | 8 Dust2 2-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-18 | Color | 13 Ancient 13-16 | 3 Dust2 2-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-18 | Strael Bora | 14 Anubis 13-8 | 14 Nuke 19-17 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | OT |








































































































































































