KillsRisk
Line
30
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.74
Hit
33.9%
EV+
-41.3%
Edge
-0.3
L10
20%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.16
Hit
48.7%
EV+
-15.6%
Edge
-1.3
L10
50%

Rifler
dumau
Legacy vs Nemiga
RISK · UNDER 30
BEST UNDER · UD 31.5PP30UD31.5
≈ L5 30.8 · L20 31.4Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 30 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
30%
6/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.83
Previous meeting · vs Nemiga
No meeting with Nemiga in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
31.4
6/20 hit at 30
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm dumau is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 65.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 29 kills or fewer: below 0.699 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
29.74
Raw edge
-0.3
Cons. hit
33.9%
EV+
-41.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.9
Line
30
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
33.9%
-7.4 →
Learned
26.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 28-32
All players · Kills
44.1%270 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 20.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 30.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 66% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 20.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 30.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.28) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.0 kills vs line 31.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 48%. Next: vs Nemiga, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 31.0 against a 31.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.74 vs line 30 → -0.26 (-0.9%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 20% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 42.9 rounds · 2-0 54.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.72
HS/Map
7.55
K/D
1.09
KPR
0.7
ADR
82
KAST
74.3%
HS%
48%
Multi-kill
17.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)15.4 · KPR 0.723 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)13.9 · KPR 0.65 · 21.5r
Required KPR to clear0.699
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.45
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.57%
Final projected kills29.28
Nemiga gives up (70 series)-1.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 30. Model: 51.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.2%
~25 kills · 36r81.4%
Normal53.1%
~30 kills · 43r48.5%
Close maps18.9%
~32 kills · 46r35.4%
Overtime7.8%
~36 kills · 52r14.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 12:55 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 65.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Heads upUnder risk — team 66% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
21.4r
+3% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.5r
-8% KPR here
Total
42.9r
2-0 sweep54.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30 (Under) · avg 31.0 · hit 2/10 · tap a bar
30
Nearby lines
| 28 Under | 25.8% | below BE |
| 29 Under | 29.8% | below BE |
| 30 Under | 33.9% | OFFERED |
| 31 Under | 40% | below BE |
| 32 Under | 49.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30
Line movement
first 31→30-1
- Back on board30 → 30Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled30Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board31 → 30Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled31Oct 24, 12:46 PM
- Back on board31 → 31Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- Pulled31Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- First seen31Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
10 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.73
HS%
52.6%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.63
HS%
45.9%
K/D
0.92
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.79
HS%
40.8%
K/D
1.28
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.69
HS%
50.5%
K/D
1.02
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.71
HS%
56.1%
K/D
0.97
Cache
2 maps
Kills
20
KPR
1
HS%
42.5%
K/D
1.82
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | BetBoom | 12 Nuke 13-16 | 19 Dust2 13-11 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | FURIA | 23 Cache 13-10 | 8 Inferno 5-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | PARIVISION | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 29 Mirage 16-14 | 42 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | M80 | 17 Cache 4-13 | 13 Mirage 13-9 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | 1win | 14 Dust2 8-13 | 6 Ancient 8-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | ShindeN | 17 Nuke 13-8 | 16 Mirage 13-11 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | PARIVISION | 14 Dust2 13-5 | 9 Inferno 2-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | G2 | 13 Ancient 13-9 | 20 Mirage 13-10 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | MIBR | 18 Nuke 13-10 | 18 Ancient 11-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | FURIA | 11 Mirage 13-7 | 20 Ancient 13-9 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Alliance | 17 Inferno 13-4 | 13 Dust2 13-6 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | magic | 16 Ancient 13-7 | 13 Dust2 7-13 | 29 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Vitality | 22 Nuke 14-16 | 26 Mirage 13-9 | 48 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | Falcons | 15 Mirage 6-13 | 14 Ancient 13-10 | 29 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-27 | FUT | 17 Ancient 13-10 | 16 Dust2 13-11 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FURIA | 15 Ancient 9-13 | 15 Nuke 13-9 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-22 | Spirit | 7 Dust2 7-13 | 19 Ancient 9-13 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Falcons | 12 Mirage 13-7 | 13 Dust2 13-10 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Natus Vincere | 14 Inferno 13-9 | 18 Ancient 13-2 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | MIBR | 19 Nuke 13-11 | 18 Inferno 13-8 | 37 | W | Over ✗ |







































































































































































