KillsRisk
Line
28
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.37
Hit
39.1%
EV+
-32.3%
Edge
+0.4
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
8.69
Hit
50.6%
EV+
-12.3%
Edge
-0.8
L10
50%
#154Ranked 154 of 277 on the board

AWPer
khaN
Nemiga vs BetBoom
RISK · UNDER 9.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP9.5UD9.5SL9.5
▲ L5 11.6 · L20 8.9Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 9.5 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.43
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
10.2
2/5 hit at 9.5
Online
8.5
11/15 hit at 9.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm khaN is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 9.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 38.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 9 HS or fewer (under ~35 kills at 28.2% HS): below 0.816 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (18.9%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
8.69
Raw edge
-0.8
Cons. hit
50.6%
EV+
-12.3%
Rating
1.7/10
Exp. rounds
41.3
Line
9.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.6%
-8.7 →
Learned
41.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 7.5-11.5
All players · Headshots
44.4%72 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.8 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 19% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (7.44) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 9.8 headshots vs line 9.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 28%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 9.8 against a 9.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 8.69 vs line 9.5 → -0.81 (-8.5%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 41.3 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.88
HS/Map
4.47
K/D
1.17
KPR
0.68
ADR
67.6
KAST
74.8%
HS%
28.2%
Multi-kill
16.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)3.7 · KPR 0.68 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Ancient)3.7 · KPR 0.6 · 22.1r
Required KPR to clear0.816
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.3
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.30%
Final projected kills26.38
× realistic HS% (28.2%)8.69
BetBoom gives up (64 series)+5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 9.5. Model: 59.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.5%
~7 HS · 35r78.1%
Normal54%
~9 HS · 41r63.6%
Close maps3.6%
~9 HS · 44r55.3%
Overtime18.9%
~11 HS · 50r40.8%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 38.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 38% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Cache
19.2r
+6% KPR here
M2 Ancient
22.1r
-7% KPR here
Total
41.3r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 9.5 (Under) · avg 9.8 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
9.5
Nearby lines
| 7.5 Under | 32.9% | below BE |
| 8.5 Under | 41.7% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 50.6% | OFFERED |
| 10.5 Under | 56.7% | below BE |
| 11.5 Under | 63.1% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 9.5
Line movement
first 9.5→9.5no change
- First seen9.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.74
HS%
28.2%
K/D
1.34
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
19.4
KPR
0.72
HS%
21.9%
K/D
1.16
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
31.4%
K/D
0.99
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.69
HS%
29.4%
K/D
1.12
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.88
HS%
32.9%
K/D
1.46
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.58
HS%
30.6%
K/D
1.04
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Legacy | 11 Ancient 25-23 | 6 Dust2 13-8 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-10 | Iberian Soul | 6 Cache 7-13 | 5 Nuke 16-13 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Lavked | 5 Anubis 13-5 | 2 Dust2 13-4 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Astralis | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Luminosity | 5 Cache 13-11 | 7 Dust2 16-13 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Alliance | 2 Cache 13-6 | 5 Ancient 13-8 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-01 | FaZe | 4 Mirage 16-12 | 0 Ancient 13-11 | 4 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | BET-M | 8 Anubis 13-10 | 1 Nuke 13-6 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | FOKUS | 5 Dust2 13-6 | 3 Mirage 22-20 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Color | 6 Cache 13-5 | 6 Dust2 9-13 | 12 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Black Phoenix | 4 Cache 13-9 | 5 Dust2 9-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INOX Division | 4 Nuke 13-2 | 3 Ancient 13-10 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Just Players | 3 Mirage 13-9 | 4 Cache 13-6 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Metizport | 4 Mirage 16-14 | 5 Nuke 13-8 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | SINNERS | 6 Cache 13-10 | 5 Mirage 13-10 | 11 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Just Players | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 1 Cache 13-3 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | K27 | 6 Anubis 10-13 | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 12 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | HOTU | 1 Ancient 3-13 | 3 Cache 13-4 | 4 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | Color | 1 Dust2 16-13 | 5 Anubis 13-6 | 6 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-06 | FOKUS | 4 Mirage 16-14 | 3 Ancient 13-3 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |








































































































































































