KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28
Hit
40.3%
EV+
-30.3%
Edge
-0.5
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.87
Hit
45.1%
EV+
-21.9%
Edge
-0.6
L10
60%

Rifler
tN1R
Team Spirit vs BetBoom
RISK · UNDER 28.5
BEST UNDER · PP 28.5PP28.5UD27.5
▼ L5 25.2 · L20 29.6Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 28.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.84
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
29.6
9/20 hit at 28.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm tN1R is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 66.5%
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.643 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
28
Raw edge
-0.5
Cons. hit
40.3%
EV+
-30.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
44.3
Line
28.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
40.3%
+6.2 →
Learned
46.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
46.4%334 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 66% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.19) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.7 kills vs line 28.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 58%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 28.7 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28 vs line 28.5 → -0.5 (-1.8%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 50% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 44.3 rounds · 2-0 7.8% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.78
HS/Map
8.53
K/D
1.01
KPR
0.67
ADR
74.1
KAST
71%
HS%
57.7%
Multi-kill
17.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)16.5 · KPR 0.722 · 22.7r
Map 2 (Ancient)12.7 · KPR 0.582 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.643
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.96
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.81%
Final projected kills29.19
BetBoom gives up (64 series)+2.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 28.5. Model: 52.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.5%
~24 kills · 37r78.1%
Normal44.5%
~28 kills · 44r56.1%
Close maps27.2%
~30 kills · 47r44.8%
Overtime7.8%
~34 kills · 53r26.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:40 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 66.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Heads upUnder risk — team 66% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Anubis
22.7r
+8% KPR here
M2 Ancient
21.6r
-13% KPR here
Total
44.3r
2-0 sweep7.8%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.5%
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Anubis / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Under) · avg 28.7 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Under | 34.2% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 37.2% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 40.3% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Under | 45.3% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 48.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28.5
Line movement
first 28.5→28.5no change
- Back on board28.5 → 28.5Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 10:03 AM
- First seen28.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
12 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.69
HS%
57.2%
K/D
1.07
Cache
7 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.59
HS%
60.5%
K/D
0.88
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.69
HS%
58.8%
K/D
1.03
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.54
HS%
52.9%
K/D
0.83
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.75
HS%
54.5%
K/D
1.05
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
21.7
KPR
0.87
HS%
63.1%
K/D
1.3
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Aurora | 13 Mirage 9-13 | 12 Anubis 6-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | MOUZ | 12 Dust2 7-13 | 14 Mirage 13-5 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Falcons | 24 Mirage 13-8 | 12 Anubis 13-10 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | M80 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 9 Cache 13-10 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 1win | 11 Cache 5-13 | 9 Anubis 9-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | MOUZ | 11 Dust2 5-13 | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | PARIVISION | 15 Ancient 11-13 | 16 Dust2 13-6 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | ShindeN | 22 Dust2 11-13 | 23 Nuke 13-11 | 45 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-06 | MOUZ | 17 Dust2 13-8 | 18 Mirage 11-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Falcons | 17 Nuke 13-8 | 12 Ancient 13-11 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FURIA | 13 Ancient 13-10 | 18 Cache 13-5 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | G2 | 16 Dust2 13-6 | 16 Cache 13-9 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | DENDELE | 12 Ancient 13-8 | 12 Cache 13-7 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FUT | 13 Cache 10-13 | 29 Anubis 16-13 | 42 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | Legacy | 8 Dust2 13-7 | 7 Ancient 13-9 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Vitality | 26 Anubis 13-11 | 25 Nuke 14-16 | 51 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | B8 | 12 Dust2 13-9 | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-15 | BIG | 7 Cache 9-13 | 18 Dust2 13-10 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Luminosity | 11 Ancient 13-3 | 26 Dust2 19-15 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-02 | MOUZ | 12 Dust2 8-13 | 6 Mirage 4-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |







































































































































































