KillsBetter playRisk
Line
26.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
24.81
Hit
50.4%
EV+
-12.8%
Edge
-1.7
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
13.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
12.76
Hit
47.3%
EV+
-18.1%
Edge
-0.7
L10
60%

Rifler
ALLE
Tropa do KinGui vs MEIA NOITE
RISK · UNDER 13.5
▼ L5 11.4 · L20 13.6Risk · Edge -0.7 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 13.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.2
Previous meeting · vs MEIA NOITE
No meeting with MEIA NOITE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
13.6
9/20 hit at 13.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm ALLE is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 13.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 65.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 13 HS or fewer (under ~27 kills at 52.7% HS): below 0.567 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
12.76
Raw edge
-0.7
Cons. hit
47.3%
EV+
-18.1%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
45.2
Line
13.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47.3%
+1.8 →
Learned
49.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 11.5-15.5
All players · Headshots
39.3%224 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.7 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 65% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (13.35) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.5 headshots vs line 13.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.55, HS 53%. Next: vs MEIA NOITE, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 12.5 against a 13.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 12.76 vs line 13.5 → -0.74 (-5.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.2 rounds · 2-0 47% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.9
HS/Map
6.8
K/D
0.84
KPR
0.55
ADR
68.9
KAST
59.8%
HS%
52.7%
Multi-kill
13.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)7.2 · KPR 0.607 · 22.6r
Map 2 (Inferno)6.1 · KPR 0.517 · 22.6r
Required KPR to clear0.567
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.4
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.29%
Final projected kills25.33
× realistic HS% (52.7%)12.76
MEIA NOITE gives up (46 series)-3.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 13.5. Model: 59.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.3%
~11 HS · 38r80.2%
Normal51%
~13 HS · 46r58.8%
Close maps16.7%
~14 HS · 48r50.3%
Overtime10%
~15 HS · 54r33.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 65.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 65% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
22.6r
+10% KPR here
M2 Inferno
22.6r
-6% KPR here
Total
45.2r
2-0 sweep47%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 13.5 (Under) · avg 12.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
13.5
Nearby lines
| 11.5 Under | 30.6% | below BE |
| 12.5 Under | 39.8% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 47.3% | OFFERED |
| 14.5 Under | 55.9% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 61.7% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 13.5
Line movement
first 13.5→offno change
- Pulled13.5Oct 24, 04:12 PM
- Back on board13.5 → 13.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled13.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen13.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.62
HS%
50%
K/D
0.89
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
10.9
KPR
0.5
HS%
51.3%
K/D
0.7
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.56
HS%
53.7%
K/D
0.74
Cache
5 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.6
HS%
55.4%
K/D
0.9
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.47
HS%
52%
K/D
0.68
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
58.2%
K/D
1.1
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.5%
K/D
1.04
Mirage
1 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.85
HS%
35.3%
K/D
1.21
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | ex-Keyd Stars | 4 Dust2 6-13 | 7 Ancient 14-16 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-12 | ex-Keyd Stars | 3 Dust2 5-13 | 3 Inferno 11-13 | 6 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Yawara | 4 Anubis 7-13 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 14 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-08 | Isurus | 4 Inferno 13-11 | 7 Ancient 13-9 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 9 Ancient 13-5 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | ALKA | 7 Inferno 7-13 | 5 Dust2 8-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-10 | Pugdesonesto | 6 Inferno 6-13 | 12 Ancient 14-16 | 18 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-08 | BORRACHEIROS | 2 Ancient 2-13 | 9 Inferno 13-10 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-05 | ODDIK Academy | 8 Anubis 22-20 | 8 Cache 11-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-04 | ALKA | 5 Ancient 13-2 | 6 Cache 9-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | LP | 8 Ancient 8-13 | 6 Cache 5-13 | 14 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-23 | GameHunters | 10 Cache 13-8 | 9 Nuke 16-12 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-10 | Fake do Biru | 6 Cache 10-13 | 11 Nuke 10-13 | 17 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-09 | paiN Academy | 6 Anubis 13-11 | 5 Ancient 13-5 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-08 | Isurus | 3 Inferno 6-13 | 9 Dust2 13-9 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-07 | Patins da Ferrari | 8 Nuke 13-6 | 5 Dust2 8-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-29 | ShindeN | 8 Ancient 13-10 | 6 Overpass 5-13 | 14 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-28 | Fluxo | 8 Anubis 8-13 | 7 Inferno 13-9 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-27 | Bounty Hunters | 10 Overpass 13-8 | 5 Ancient 13-9 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-25 | Keyd Stars | 6 Ancient 13-11 | 11 Nuke 13-9 | 17 | W | Over ✗ |









































































































































































