
Rifler
apocdud
Ground Zero vs Off Chops
LEAN · UNDER 24.5
PP24.5
▼ L5 23.4 · L20 25.3LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 24.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±6.34
Previous meeting · vs Off Chops
1/1 hit · avg 23 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 6-13 · Anubis 13-11 · Split
23
Under 24.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
26.1
4/8 hit at 24.5
Online
24.7
6/12 hit at 24.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm apocdud is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 24.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 26.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 24 kills or fewer: below 0.609 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
22.2
Raw edge
-2.3
Cons. hit
53.9%
EV+
-6.6%
Rating
5.3/10
Exp. rounds
40.2
Line
24.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
53.9%
-6.6 →
Learned
47.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 22.5-26.5
All players · Kills
41.3%138 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 64.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (21.69) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 22.6 kills vs line 24.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.55, HS 31%. Next: vs Off Chops, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 22.6 against a 24.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 22.2 vs line 24.5 → -2.3 (-9.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.2 rounds · 2-0 73% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.62
HS/Map
3.9
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.55
ADR
59.4
KAST
71.2%
HS%
30.9%
Multi-kill
12%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)10.9 · KPR 0.554 · 20.2r
Map 2 (Anubis)10.8 · KPR 0.552 · 20r
Required KPR to clear0.609
Base kills (Maps 1-2)22.22
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.38%
Final projected kills21.69
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 24.5. Model: 64.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps35.9%
~19 kills · 34r86.7%
Normal33.3%
~24 kills · 43r56.7%
Close maps23%
~24 kills · 43r57.1%
Overtime7.8%
~27 kills · 49r35.7%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 26.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 26% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Dust2
20.2r
+7% KPR here
M2 Anubis
20r
+7% KPR here
Total
40.2r
2-0 sweep73%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)35.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 24.5 (Under) · avg 22.6 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
24.5
Nearby lines
| 22.5 Under | 44.6% | below BE |
| 23.5 Under | 50.4% | below BE |
| 24.5 Under | 53.9% | OFFERED |
| 25.5 Under | 58.6% | |
| 26.5 Under | 60.9% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 24.5
Line movement
first 24.5→24.5no change
- First seen24.5Oct 24, 06:46 PM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.6
HS%
30.9%
K/D
0.87
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.6
HS%
27.5%
K/D
0.94
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.6
HS%
38.4%
K/D
1.01
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.69
HS%
23.9%
K/D
1.02
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
9.2
KPR
0.51
HS%
35.1%
K/D
0.74
Mirage
1 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.69
HS%
33.3%
K/D
3
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Off Chops | 11 Dust2 6-13 | 12 Anubis 13-11 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Abyssal | 5 Inferno 13-3 | 13 Ancient 6-13 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Abyssal | 15 Inferno 8-13 | 12 Nuke 7-13 | 27 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | FlyQuest | 12 Anubis 10-13 | 16 Inferno 10-13 | 28 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 12 Inferno 8-13 | 9 Dust2 9-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Rooster | 13 Anubis 6-13 | 12 Nuke 13-11 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Abyssal | 15 Inferno 13-11 | 17 Dust2 12-16 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 4 Ancient 4-13 | 11 Dust2 3-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-01 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 6 Dust2 8-13 | 4 Inferno 1-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-31 | Arcade | 12 Nuke 13-3 | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 4 Nuke 5-13 | 14 Inferno 13-11 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Rooster | 15 Anubis 13-4 | 32 Nuke 19-15 | 47 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-26 | LFO 8 | 11 Ancient 13-10 | 10 Dust2 13-3 | 21 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-13 | Abyssal | 9 Ancient 13-1 | 6 Anubis 13-8 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-06 | Abyssal | 9 Mirage 13-0 | 16 Dust2 13-11 | 25 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-05 | Time Waves | 24 Inferno 19-17 | 16 Nuke 13-3 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-19 | FlyQuest | 11 Dust2 6-13 | 12 Anubis 5-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-18 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 19 Dust2 8-13 | 16 Anubis 13-10 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-18 | Mindfreak | 15 Inferno 9-13 | 18 Anubis 13-9 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-18 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 14 Dust2 10-13 | 8 Anubis 7-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ |








































































































































































