KillsBetter playRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.38
Hit
42.2%
EV+
-26.8%
Edge
-0.1
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
13.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.75
Hit
32.6%
EV+
-43.6%
Edge
+1.3
L10
40%

Rifler
m1quse
INOX Division vs Brute
RISK · UNDER 28.5
▼ L5 28.8 · L20 30.2Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 28.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
37%
7/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±6.84
Previous meeting · vs Brute
No meeting with Brute in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
30.2
7/19 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm m1QUSE is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.621 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
28.38
Raw edge
-0.1
Cons. hit
42.2%
EV+
-26.8%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
45.9
Line
28.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
42.2%
+4.4 →
Learned
46.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
46.4%334 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 36.8% at this line
- Under risk — team 59% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 36.8% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 13% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (28.2) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.5 kills vs line 28.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 51%. Next: vs Brute, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 28.5 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.38 vs line 28.5 → -0.12 (-0.4%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.9 rounds · 2-0 72% · OT 12.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
15.11
HS/Map
7.71
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.66
ADR
73.4
KAST
72.4%
HS%
51%
Multi-kill
15.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)14.9 · KPR 0.638 · 23.5r
Map 2 (Anubis)13.3 · KPR 0.596 · 22.4r
Required KPR to clear0.621
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.34
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.50%
Final projected kills28.2
Brute gives up (32 series)-5.6% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 28.5. Model: 50.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps19%
~24 kills · 39r79.9%
Normal57.5%
~28 kills · 46r53.5%
Close maps10.7%
~30 kills · 49r40.1%
Overtime12.8%
~34 kills · 55r20.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 59% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
23.5r
-3% KPR here
M2 Anubis
22.4r
-9% KPR here
Total
45.9r
2-0 sweep72%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)23.5%
Overtime12.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)19%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Under) · avg 28.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Under | 31.4% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 38.8% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 42.2% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Under | 49.7% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 53% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28.5
Line movement
first 28.5→offno change
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 02:12 PM
- Back on board28.5 → 28.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen28.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.63
HS%
54.2%
K/D
0.8
Anubis
8 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.57
HS%
50%
K/D
0.8
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
16.6
KPR
0.7
HS%
46.6%
K/D
1.05
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.75
HS%
47.6%
K/D
1.17
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
18.5
KPR
0.81
HS%
52.7%
K/D
1.16
Mirage
3 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.66
HS%
61.5%
K/D
0.91
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Aces | 28 Dust2 7-13 | 16 Nuke 13-8 | 44 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | PRIVATE | 14 Anubis 6-13 | 11 Dust2 3-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | SINNERS | 17 Inferno 13-6 | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | INOX Division | 15 Ancient 13-9 | 12 Dust2 8-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-07 | CYBERSHOKE | 12 Dust2 13-9 | 10 Anubis 7-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 13 Dust2 11-13 | 14 Mirage 8-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-04 | HEROIC | 12 Ancient 6-13 | 17 Dust2 17-19 | 29 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | B8 | 17 Inferno 11-13 | 12 Mirage 4-13 | 29 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | INFINITE | 10 Inferno 13-4 | 9 Dust2 9-13 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Eternal Fire | 20 Ancient 16-13 | 17 Anubis 13-10 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | magic | 9 Anubis 13-11 | 13 Ancient 13-5 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-01 | Color | 13 Dust2 9-13 | 16 Inferno 13-2 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-24 | CYBERSHOKE | 17 Ancient 13-8 | 12 Anubis 13-5 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-06 | Butterfly | 14 Inferno 13-7 | 19 Nuke 13-7 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-06 | Sashi | 15 Nuke 13-7 | 15 Anubis 11-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-05 | CYBERSHOKE Prospects | 12 Ancient 13-9 | 29 Inferno 22-20 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-04 | Just Players | 20 Dust2 13-11 | 10 Anubis 13-9 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-24 | Echo | 11 Anubis 8-13 | 24 Nuke 14-16 | 35 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-23 | 100 Thieves | 27 Ancient 19-15 | 13 Mirage 8-13 | 40 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |








































































































































































