KillsRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.7
Hit
46.2%
EV+
-20.0%
Edge
-1.8
L10
20%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
17
Pick
UNDER
Projection
16.42
Hit
49.4%
EV+
-14.5%
Edge
-0.6
L10
50%

Rifler
HUASOPEEK
9z vs MOUZ
RISK · UNDER 27.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP27.5UD27.5SL27.5
▼ L5 26.4 · L20 28.4Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 27.5 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
35%
7/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±6.67
Previous meeting · vs MOUZ
1/1 hit · avg 20 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-27 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Cache 4-13 · Nuke 7-13 · L
20
Under 27.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
28.4
7/20 hit at 27.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm HUASOPEEK is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 24.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 27 kills or fewer: below 0.677 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
25.7
Raw edge
-1.8
Cons. hit
46.2%
EV+
-20.0%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
27.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.2%
-6.2 →
Learned
40%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
44.1%331 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.8 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 20.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 35.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 20.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 35.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (25.4) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.5 kills vs line 27.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 64%. Next: vs MOUZ, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 28.5 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 25.7 vs line 27.5 → -1.8 (-6.5%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 20% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 59.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.22
HS/Map
9.1
K/D
0.97
KPR
0.7
ADR
76
KAST
73.3%
HS%
64%
Multi-kill
16.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)11.7 · KPR 0.61 · 19.4r
Map 2 (Mirage)13.7 · KPR 0.655 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.677
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.72
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.28%
Final projected kills25.4
MOUZ gives up (78 series)-5.6% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 27.5. Model: 60.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps29.9%
~22 kills · 34r86%
Normal47.6%
~27 kills · 42r57.6%
Close maps12.5%
~28 kills · 43r51.9%
Overtime10%
~31 kills · 49r29.2%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 24.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 24% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Nuke
19.4r
-7% KPR here
M2 Mirage
21.2r
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep59.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Under) · avg 28.5 · hit 2/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Under | 39.1% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 42.7% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 46.2% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Under | 55.4% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 58.1% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27.5
Line movement
first 27.5→27.5no change
- First seen27.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Nuke
12 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.64
HS%
56.5%
K/D
0.91
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.7
HS%
68.6%
K/D
1.08
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.78
HS%
64.1%
K/D
1.08
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.6
HS%
74.3%
K/D
0.88
Cache
5 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.56
HS%
65.5%
K/D
0.86
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
21
KPR
0.74
HS%
54.8%
K/D
1.02
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Vitality | 14 Mirage 10-13 | 16 Cache 10-13 | 30 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Aurora | 19 Cache 11-13 | 9 Inferno 4-13 | 28 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Falcons | 9 Nuke 9-13 | 19 Mirage 13-8 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | Aurora | 18 Inferno 13-11 | 12 Nuke 13-1 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | FURIA | 9 Nuke 7-13 | 7 Inferno 3-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | BetBoom | 18 Dust2 13-8 | 15 Mirage 13-9 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Natus Vincere | 12 Nuke 6-13 | 6 Cache 6-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | TYLOO | 22 Nuke 13-10 | 13 Mirage 13-2 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Aurora | 14 Dust2 3-13 | 14 Mirage 11-13 | 28 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | G2 | 22 Dust2 13-11 | 17 Ancient 8-13 | 39 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | MIBR | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 13 Nuke 7-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | 5star | 7 Cache 13-3 | 8 Nuke 13-4 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | Vitality | 10 Dust2 2-13 | 7 Nuke 6-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | MOUZ | 7 Cache 4-13 | 13 Nuke 7-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | magic | 25 Ancient 17-19 | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 40 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-15 | FURIA | 13 Dust2 6-13 | 27 Mirage 16-13 | 40 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-12 | PARIVISION | 16 Mirage 13-9 | 21 Inferno 13-10 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | Alliance | 17 Nuke 13-10 | 15 Inferno 17-19 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-09 | TYLOO | 16 Nuke 13-9 | 10 Mirage 7-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-05 | MIBR | 16 Nuke 13-10 | 21 Mirage 16-13 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | OT |








































































































































































