KillsRisk
Line
22.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
21.96
Hit
46.9%
EV+
-18.8%
Edge
-0.5
L10
40%
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Rifler · IGL
gafolo
DENDELE vs FURIA
RISK · UNDER 22.5
BEST UNDER · UD 23.5PP22.5UD23.5
≈ L5 23.4 · L20 23.9Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 22.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
39%
7/18
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±5.31
Previous meeting · vs FURIA
1/1 hit · avg 17 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-07-24 · BLAST Bounty Summer 2026: Closed Qualifier
Anubis 13-6 · Mirage 6-13 · Split
17
Under 22.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
24.4
4/12 hit at 22.5
Online
23
3/6 hit at 22.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm gafolo is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 22.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 18.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 22 kills or fewer: below 0.554 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (11%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
21.96
Raw edge
-0.5
Cons. hit
46.9%
EV+
-18.8%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
22.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.9%
+6.9 →
Learned
53.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 20.5-24.5
All players · Kills
31.8%44 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 38.9% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 38.9% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 11% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (21.34) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 23.2 kills vs line 21.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.53, HS 48%. Next: vs FURIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 23.2 against a 21.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 21.96 vs line 22.5 → -0.54 (-2.4%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 11%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
11.97
HS/Map
5.75
K/D
0.88
KPR
0.53
ADR
57.9
KAST
71.1%
HS%
48%
Multi-kill
10.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)11.2 · KPR 0.529 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Cache)10.1 · KPR 0.533 · 19.2r
Required KPR to clear0.554
Base kills (Maps 1-2)21.56
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.03%
Final projected kills21.34
FURIA gives up (117 series)-8.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 22.5. Model: 54.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.5%
~18 kills · 34r82.4%
Normal53.5%
~23 kills · 42r51.9%
Close maps9%
~24 kills · 43r43.5%
Overtime11%
~27 kills · 49r21.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 18.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 18% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Mirage
21.4r
+6% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.2r
+7% KPR here
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)20%
Overtime11%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 22.5 (Under) · avg 23.2 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
22.5
Nearby lines
| 20.5 Under | 36.1% | below BE |
| 21.5 Under | 42.5% | below BE |
| 22.5 Under | 46.9% | OFFERED |
| 23.5 Under | 56.8% | below BE |
| 24.5 Under | 60% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 22.5
Line movement
first 21.5→22.5+1
- Back on board22.5 → 22.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled22.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board21.5 → 22.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled21.5Oct 24, 04:10 PM
- First seen21.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.57
HS%
46.2%
K/D
0.87
Cache
9 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.58
HS%
46.6%
K/D
0.89
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.63
HS%
53.4%
K/D
0.98
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.54
HS%
50%
K/D
0.93
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.52
HS%
44.9%
K/D
0.86
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
9.8
KPR
0.49
HS%
51.3%
K/D
0.76
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Wildcard | 11 Mirage 13-4 | 7 Nuke 8-13 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Imperial | 13 Mirage 13-8 | 10 Inferno 13-11 | 23 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Wildcard | 17 Mirage 13-16 | 10 Cache 3-13 | 27 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | M80 | 13 Inferno 13-7 | 2 Anubis 9-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Wildcard | 20 Mirage 13-11 | 14 Nuke 10-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 12 Ancient 16-13 | 23 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Voca | 12 Ancient 13-7 | 17 Cache 13-7 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Color | 12 Mirage 8-13 | 9 Cache 13-6 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | EYEBALLERS | 14 Ancient 11-13 | 9 Cache 13-3 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Aurora | 5 Cache 7-13 | 14 Mirage 12-16 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-26 | Spirit | 11 Ancient 8-13 | 8 Cache 7-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-09 | JiJieHao | 9 Inferno 14-16 | 17 Cache 13-9 | 26 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-07 | SAW | 20 Inferno 13-10 | 11 Anubis 13-10 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-07 | QueenConso | 15 Nuke 13-0 | 14 Anubis 13-3 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | FaZe | 10 Nuke 2-13 | 18 Mirage 13-10 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-24 | FURIA | 12 Anubis 13-6 | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | paiN | 15 Cache 13-11 | 12 Nuke 13-7 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-10 | BESTIA | 9 Mirage 10-13 | 13 Cache 13-8 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ |







































































































































































