KillsRisk
Line
32
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.33
Hit
50.3%
EV+
-12.9%
Edge
+0.3
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
11.19
Hit
59.7%
EV+
+3.4%
Edge
+0.7
L10
70%

AWPer
saadzin
Imperial vs BESTIA
RISK · OVER 10.5
≈ L5 11.0 · L20 10.8Risk · Edge +0.7 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 10.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
64%
9/14
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Low
±2.82
Previous meeting · vs BESTIA
1/2 hit · avg 9.5 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-22 · Circuit X Curitiba 4
Dust2 7-13 · Mirage 7-13 · L
6
Under 10.5 ✗
2026-09-19 · Circuit X Curitiba 3
Mirage 10-13 · Nuke 13-2 · Split
13
Over 10.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
11.2
9/13 hit at 10.5
Online
6
0/1 hit at 10.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm saadzin is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 10.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 63.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 11+ HS (~32 kills at 34.7% HS): 0.682 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54%) or blowout (28.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
11.19
Raw edge
+0.7
Cons. hit
59.7%
EV+
+3.4%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.4
Line
10.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
59.7%
+8.1 →
Learned
67.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 8.5-12.5
All players · Headshots
57.5%106 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.7 below ±2.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 64.3% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (11.27) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 11.2 headshots vs line 10.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 35%. Next: vs BESTIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 11.2 against a 10.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 11.19 vs line 10.5 → +0.69 (6.6%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.4 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 13.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
15.54
HS/Map
5.39
K/D
1.35
KPR
0.73
ADR
73.8
KAST
79.9%
HS%
34.7%
Multi-kill
16.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)5.6 · KPR 0.703 · 23.2r
Map 2 (Nuke)5.6 · KPR 0.772 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.682
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.68
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.62%
Final projected kills32.47
× realistic HS% (34.7%)11.19
BESTIA gives up (72 series)+4.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 10.5. Model: 59.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.3%
~9 HS · 37r34.4%
Normal30.6%
~11 HS · 44r55.1%
Close maps27.5%
~12 HS · 48r64.5%
Overtime13.6%
~14 HS · 54r78.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 09:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 63.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 64% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
23.2r
-4% KPR here
M2 Nuke
21.2r
+5% KPR here
Total
44.4r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)41.1%
Overtime13.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 10.5 (Over) · avg 11.2 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
10.5
Nearby lines
| 8.5 Over | 66.1% | |
| 9.5 Over | 64.5% | |
| 10.5 Over | 59.7% | OFFERED |
| 11.5 Over | 49.1% | below BE |
| 12.5 Over | 39.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 10.5
Line movement
first 10.5→offno change
- Pulled10.5Oct 24, 09:55 PM
- Back on board10.5 → 10.5Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- Pulled10.5Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- First seen10.5Oct 24, 05:25 AM
Map stats
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.69
HS%
30.3%
K/D
1.24
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.79
HS%
37.7%
K/D
1.57
Cache
4 maps
Kills
18.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
38.7%
K/D
1.27
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
46.8%
K/D
1.24
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
25.4%
K/D
1.34
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.86
HS%
34.4%
K/D
1.56
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | paiN | 7 Inferno 13-3 | 5 Anubis 14-16 | 12 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 3 Dust2 13-4 | 8 Mirage 16-14 | 11 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | BESTIA | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 1 Mirage 7-13 | 6 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Turma do Pagode | 5 Anubis 13-10 | 8 Cache 16-14 | 13 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | DENDELE | 4 Mirage 8-13 | 9 Inferno 11-13 | 13 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | NRG | 6 Inferno 4-13 | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Without a Roof | 7 Dust2 13-4 | 9 Nuke 13-9 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | paiN | 1 Anubis 13-4 | 10 Cache 13-11 | 11 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Bounty Hunters | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 2 Nuke 13-7 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Galorys | 7 Cache 16-12 | 0 Inferno 13-6 | 7 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | Juventus | 5 Anubis 13-6 | 8 Nuke 13-3 | 13 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | BESTIA | 7 Mirage 10-13 | 6 Nuke 13-2 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Bounty Hunters | 3 Mirage 13-6 | 4 Cache 8-13 | 7 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-06 | Bounty Hunters | 2 Mirage 13-10 | 4 Nuke 11-13 | 6 | Split | Under ✗ |








































































































































































