KillsRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
25.92
Hit
41.6%
EV+
-27.9%
Edge
-1.6
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
13
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.21
Hit
48.3%
EV+
-16.3%
Edge
+0.2
L10
30%

Rifler
2high
UNiTY vs Acend
RISK · OVER 13
PP13
▼ L5 11.4 · L20 13.5Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2
Hit rates at 13 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
47%
9/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±5.69
Previous meeting · vs Acend
No meeting with Acend in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
15.5
2/4 hit at 13
Online · this match
12.9
7/15 hit at 13
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm 2high is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 13
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 14+ HS (~28 kills at 50.8% HS): 0.597 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (73%) or blowout (28.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
13.21
Raw edge
+0.2
Cons. hit
48.3%
EV+
-16.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.9
Line
13
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.3%
+8.7 →
Learned
57%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 11-15
All players · Headshots
60.4%169 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.2 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 47.4% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 73% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 47.4% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 73% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (13.98) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.8 headshots vs line 13.0 (3/10 over). KPR 0.64, HS 51%. Next: vs Acend, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 12.8 against a 13.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- 26% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.21 vs line 13 → +0.21 (1.6%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 30% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 42.9 rounds · 2-0 73% · OT 5.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
13.26
HS/Map
6.74
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.64
ADR
72
KAST
73.3%
HS%
50.8%
Multi-kill
17%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)7.4 · KPR 0.689 · 21.7r
Map 2 (Cache)6.5 · KPR 0.619 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.597
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.07
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.98%
Final projected kills27.52
× realistic HS% (50.8%)13.21
Acend gives up (32 series)+1.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 13. Model: 51.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.4%
~11 HS · 36r28.4%
Normal52.5%
~14 HS · 45r47.9%
Close maps13.3%
~14 HS · 46r50.2%
Overtime5.8%
~16 HS · 52r62.8%
Match context
Oct 25, 09:00 AMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 60% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
21.7r
+7% KPR here
M2 Cache
21.2r
-4% KPR here
Total
42.9r
2-0 sweep73%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)19.1%
Overtime5.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 13 (Over) · avg 12.8 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
13
Nearby lines
| 11 Over | 57.9% | |
| 12 Over | 52.4% | below BE |
| 13 Over | 48.3% | OFFERED |
| 14 Over | 44.2% | below BE |
| 15 Over | 40.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 13
Line movement
first 13→13no change
- First seen13Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.7
HS%
54.2%
K/D
1.14
Cache
7 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.61
HS%
54.8%
K/D
0.94
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
12.1
KPR
0.57
HS%
50.6%
K/D
0.88
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.67
HS%
46.2%
K/D
1.25
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.57
HS%
46.4%
K/D
0.88
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
17
KPR
1.13
HS%
52.9%
K/D
3.4
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.56
HS%
40%
K/D
0.67
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Betclic | 2 Ancient 13-11 | 9 Cache 6-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | FOKUS | 10 Mirage 13-8 | 8 Cache 7-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | 9INE | 6 Mirage 13-10 | 2 Cache 3-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | mellren | 6 Mirage 13-5 | 6 Inferno 13-4 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2 Mirage 13-6 | 6 Cache 13-11 | 8 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | NT | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 9 Ancient 13-11 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | NT | 10 Mirage 13-5 | 8 Ancient 9-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | INFINITE | 6 Inferno 13-11 | 4 Mirage 13-7 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-02 | aimclub | 4 Dust2 13-5 | 4 Cache 13-4 | 8 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Illyrians | 5 Inferno 13-1 | 4 Dust2 7-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | Leo | 11 Ancient 16-14 | 6 Dust2 13-9 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | Phantom Academy | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 3 Ancient 13-11 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-13 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 11 Cache 13-8 | 8 Mirage 6-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | ENCE | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 8 Inferno 13-9 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Leo | 6 Mirage 12-16 | 8 Dust2 7-13 | 14 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | MOUZ NXT | 6 Cache 13-8 | 9 Mirage 13-4 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-07 | EAC | 6 Inferno 8-13 | 4 Nuke 5-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | Black Phoenix | 7 Dust2 13-8 | 9 Anubis 13-2 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | INOX Division | 6 Ancient 11-13 | 6 Inferno 9-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ |








































































































































































