KillsBetter playRisk
Line
21
Pick
UNDER
Projection
20.44
Hit
46.9%
EV+
-18.7%
Edge
-0.6
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
13
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.33
Hit
41.9%
EV+
-27.4%
Edge
+0.3
L10
30%
#220Ranked 220 of 277 on the board

Rifler · IGL
Mercury
TYLOO vs Team Spirit
RISK · UNDER 21
BEST UNDER · UD 21.5PP21UD21.5SL21.5
▼ L5 21.4 · L20 23.1Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 21 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
31%
5/16
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.54
Previous meeting · vs Team Spirit
No meeting with Team Spirit in his last 16 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
21
4/11 hit at 21
Online
27.6
1/5 hit at 21
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Mercury is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 21
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 10.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 20 kills or fewer: below 0.566 KPR over ~37 rounds. Main danger: overtime (1.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
20.44
Raw edge
-0.6
Cons. hit
46.9%
EV+
-18.7%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
37.1
Line
21
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.9%
+8.7 →
Learned
55.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 19-23
All players · Kills
23.1%13 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.6 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 31.2% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 16 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 31.2% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 1% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (20.02) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 21.6 kills vs line 21.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.54, HS 63%. Next: vs Spirit, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 21.6 against a 21.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (68%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (68%) — fewer total rounds
- 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 20.44 vs line 21 → -0.56 (-2.7%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 37.1 rounds · 2-0 67.5% · OT 1.4%
Performance (last 32 maps)
Kills/Map
11.53
HS/Map
7.31
K/D
0.9
KPR
0.54
ADR
60.7
KAST
72.7%
HS%
63.4%
Multi-kill
12.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)9 · KPR 0.516 · 18r
Map 2 (Ancient)11 · KPR 0.598 · 19.1r
Required KPR to clear0.566
Base kills (Maps 1-2)20.71
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-3.31%
Final projected kills20.02
Team Spirit gives up (133 series)-1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 21. Model: 54.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps41.6%
~18 kills · 32r75.4%
Normal46.4%
~23 kills · 41r36.4%
Close maps10.6%
~22 kills · 41r38%
Overtime1.4%
~26 kills · 47r17.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 10.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 10% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Mirage
18r
+2% KPR here
M2 Ancient
19.1r
+18% KPR here
Total
37.1r
2-0 sweep67.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)12%
Overtime1.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)41.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 21 (Under) · avg 21.6 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
21
Nearby lines
| 19 Under | 38.6% | below BE |
| 20 Under | 42.8% | below BE |
| 21 Under | 46.9% | OFFERED |
| 22 Under | 53% | below BE |
| 23 Under | 59.6% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 21
Line movement
first 21→21no change
- First seen21Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
10.1
KPR
0.55
HS%
67.3%
K/D
0.9
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
11.9
KPR
0.58
HS%
61.4%
K/D
0.89
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.68
HS%
60.2%
K/D
1.07
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.61
HS%
60%
K/D
0.92
Cache
2 maps
Kills
10.5
KPR
0.53
HS%
71.4%
K/D
0.75
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
6
KPR
0.3
HS%
83.3%
K/D
0.35
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | FUT | 12 Nuke 9-13 | 9 Ancient 6-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | M80 | 18 Mirage 13-10 | 9 Cache 7-13 | 27 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 9z | 10 Nuke 10-13 | 4 Mirage 2-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Falcons | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 6 Anubis 7-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Alliance | 13 Inferno 11-13 | 16 Ancient 11-13 | 29 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | GamerLegion | 13 Ancient 13-7 | 9 Mirage 13-6 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | PARIVISION | 16 Inferno 11-13 | 6 Ancient 4-13 | 22 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | DEPO | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 9 Inferno 13-2 | 18 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | Kaleido | 18 Mirage 13-5 | 13 Inferno 13-9 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | Lynn Vision | 13 Nuke 8-13 | 3 Inferno 4-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-12 | Lynn Vision | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 23 Inferno 10-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | The Huns | 17 Ancient 13-9 | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | The MongolZ Academy | 17 Ancient 13-3 | 8 Mirage 13-1 | 25 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-09 | 9z | 13 Nuke 9-13 | 13 Mirage 13-7 | 26 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-03 | EYEBALLERS | 17 Nuke 13-6 | 12 Cache 13-7 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-09 | Legacy | 3 Mirage 7-13 | 6 Inferno 4-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































