
AWPer
saffee
paiN vs Galorys
RISK · OVER 27.5
≈ L5 28.0 · L20 27.4Risk · Edge +2.2 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 27.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±4.94
Previous meeting · vs Galorys
1/1 hit · avg 36 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-09-26 · FERJEE In House Season 2
Cache 13-9 · Dust2 13-5 · W
36
Over 27.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
26.8
7/16 hit at 27.5
Online
29.8
1/4 hit at 27.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm saffee is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 28+ kills: 0.621 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53%) or blowout (29.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
29.65
Raw edge
+2.1
Cons. hit
59.6%
EV+
+3.2%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.3
Line
27.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
59.6%
+8.1 →
Learned
67.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
55.9%331 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 66.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 40.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 53% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (30.36) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.6 kills vs line 27.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 28%. Next: vs Galorys, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 27.6 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 29.65 vs line 27.5 → +2.15 (7.8%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.3 rounds · 2-0 53% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.68
HS/Map
3.83
K/D
1
KPR
0.67
ADR
74.1
KAST
71.3%
HS%
28%
Multi-kill
14.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)14.5 · KPR 0.648 · 22.6r
Map 2 (Dust2)15.9 · KPR 0.739 · 21.7r
Required KPR to clear0.621
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.68
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.04%
Final projected kills30.36
Galorys gives up (77 series)-4.4% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 27.5. Model: 66.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps29.4%
~25 kills · 37r29.7%
Normal43.9%
~31 kills · 46r70.3%
Close maps16.7%
~32 kills · 47r76.4%
Overtime10%
~36 kills · 53r91.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 06:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 59% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Cache
22.6r
-3% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.7r
+11% KPR here
Total
44.3r
2-0 sweep53%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Over) · avg 27.6 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Over | 64.7% | |
| 26.5 Over | 62.2% | |
| 27.5 Over | 59.6% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Over | 54% | below BE |
| 29.5 Over | 47.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27.5
Line movement
first 27.5→offno change
- Pulled27.5Oct 24, 06:00 PM
- Back on board27.5 → 27.5Oct 24, 05:12 AM
- Pulled27.5Oct 24, 05:11 AM
- First seen27.5Oct 24, 05:11 AM
Map stats
Cache
8 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.64
HS%
35.1%
K/D
0.97
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.77
HS%
30.4%
K/D
1.33
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.59
HS%
20%
K/D
0.84
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.63
HS%
34.5%
K/D
1.05
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.56
HS%
20.5%
K/D
0.86
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
21.3%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Imperial | 7 Inferno 3-13 | 19 Anubis 16-14 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 8 Cache 7-13 | 17 Dust2 13-9 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 7 Inferno 2-13 | 16 Dust2 13-7 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Imperial | 19 Anubis 4-13 | 11 Cache 11-13 | 30 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Galorys | 16 Cache 13-9 | 20 Dust2 13-5 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Bounty Hunters | 22 Cache 13-7 | 13 Dust2 13-3 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Turma do Pagode | 6 Anubis 13-10 | 13 Dust2 13-10 | 19 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-18 | Fluxo | 12 Anubis 10-13 | 17 Mirage 13-10 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-16 | Turma do Pagode | 19 Dust2 13-11 | 9 Anubis 13-6 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | BIG | 9 Dust2 6-13 | 16 Cache 8-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | HOTU | 17 Cache 11-13 | 8 Nuke 4-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Natus Vincere | 7 Nuke 9-13 | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | FURIA | 9 Mirage 2-13 | 7 Cache 6-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | The MongolZ | 12 Nuke 10-13 | 6 Inferno 4-13 | 18 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Wildcard | 21 Inferno 12-16 | 15 Nuke 13-3 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-31 | Astralis | 12 Nuke 13-10 | 27 Inferno 17-19 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 17 Nuke 13-6 | 25 Mirage 16-14 | 42 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-23 | Gentle Mates | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 16 Nuke 13-6 | 27 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-16 | 3DMAX | 14 Cache 10-13 | 11 Inferno 4-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-15 | Phantom | 18 Dust2 13-8 | 8 Anubis 5-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |







































































































































































