KillsRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
24.94
Hit
39.4%
EV+
-31.8%
Edge
-0.6
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
11.68
Hit
43.9%
EV+
-23.9%
Edge
-0.8
L10
50%

Rifler
yuurih
FURIA vs DENDELE
RISK · UNDER 12.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP12.5UD12.5
▲ L5 12.0 · L20 11.5Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 12.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.44
Previous meeting · vs DENDELE
No meeting with DENDELE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
11.5
12/20 hit at 12.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm yuurih is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 12.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 81.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 12 HS or fewer (under ~27 kills at 48.5% HS): below 0.629 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
11.68
Raw edge
-0.8
Cons. hit
43.9%
EV+
-23.9%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41
Line
12.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
43.9%
-4.5 →
Learned
39.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 10.5-14.5
All players · Headshots
40.2%189 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.8 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 82% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (11.54) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.6 headshots vs line 12.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.61, HS 49%. Next: vs DENDELE, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 12.6 against a 12.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 11.68 vs line 12.5 → -0.82 (-6.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 41 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
11.85
HS/Map
5.75
K/D
0.91
KPR
0.61
ADR
67.7
KAST
74.9%
HS%
48.5%
Multi-kill
14.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)5.8 · KPR 0.597 · 20.4r
Map 2 (Cache)5.7 · KPR 0.582 · 20.6r
Required KPR to clear0.629
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.18
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.54%
Final projected kills23.8
× realistic HS% (48.5%)11.68
DENDELE gives up (26 series)+6% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 12.5. Model: 59.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps31.7%
~10 HS · 34r80.4%
Normal37.5%
~12 HS · 43r56.1%
Close maps20.8%
~13 HS · 44r52.1%
Overtime10%
~14 HS · 50r34.3%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 81.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 82% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
20.4r
-9% KPR here
M2 Cache
20.6r
-11% KPR here
Total
41r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)31.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12.5 (Under) · avg 12.6 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
12.5
Nearby lines
| 10.5 Under | 26.2% | below BE |
| 11.5 Under | 37% | below BE |
| 12.5 Under | 43.9% | OFFERED |
| 13.5 Under | 52.4% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 59% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 12.5
Line movement
first 12.5→12.5no change
- Back on board12.5 → 12.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled12.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board13 → 12.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled13Oct 24, 04:10 PM
- Moved up12.5 → 13Oct 24, 03:22 PM
- Moved down13 → 12.5Oct 24, 03:21 PM
- Moved up12.5 → 13Oct 24, 03:21 PM
- First seen12.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.54
HS%
49.2%
K/D
0.91
Cache
7 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.51
HS%
47.5%
K/D
0.83
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
10.8
KPR
0.52
HS%
50.8%
K/D
0.89
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.55
HS%
38.8%
K/D
0.83
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.63
HS%
50.7%
K/D
1.16
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
10.4
KPR
0.55
HS%
57.7%
K/D
1
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.57
HS%
50%
K/D
0.71
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | BetBoom | 6 Dust2 13-6 | 5 Ancient 16-19 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Aurora | 5 Dust2 13-8 | 6 Inferno 13-10 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Legacy | 4 Cache 10-13 | 5 Inferno 13-5 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | BetBoom | 8 Ancient 13-10 | 7 Mirage 13-9 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | MOUZ | 9 Nuke 11-13 | 5 Inferno 6-13 | 14 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | 9z | 6 Nuke 13-7 | 7 Inferno 13-3 | 13 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | Aurora | 13 Dust2 13-8 | 5 Mirage 9-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | PARIVISION | 4 Ancient 7-13 | 4 Mirage 13-5 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | MOUZ | 5 Cache 4-13 | 4 Mirage 7-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BetBoom | 11 Mirage 13-5 | 7 Cache 16-14 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 3 Cache 5-13 | 6 Anubis 8-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | MIBR | 4 Mirage 13-8 | 6 Nuke 13-11 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-19 | MOUZ | 7 Cache 13-8 | 8 Mirage 16-19 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Vitality | 4 Mirage 8-13 | 2 Dust2 5-13 | 6 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | MIBR | 7 Inferno 11-13 | 8 Nuke 13-6 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-11 | G2 | 6 Ancient 14-16 | 4 Dust2 3-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | Legacy | 4 Mirage 7-13 | 4 Ancient 9-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | PARIVISION | 4 Ancient 13-2 | 3 Inferno 13-11 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | GamerLegion | 8 Cache 11-13 | 7 Mirage 13-10 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | Vitality | 5 Nuke 13-6 | 4 Cache 11-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ |







































































































































































