KillsRisk
Line
22.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
21.96
Hit
46.9%
EV+
-18.8%
Edge
-0.5
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
11
Pick
UNDER
Projection
10.29
Hit
58.1%
EV+
+0.6%
Edge
-0.7
L10
70%

Rifler · IGL
gafolo
DENDELE vs FURIA
RISK · UNDER 11
BEST UNDER · PP 11PP11UD10.5
▼ L5 10.4 · L20 11.5Risk · Edge -0.7 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 11 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
50%
9/18
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±2.23
Previous meeting · vs FURIA
1/1 hit · avg 9 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-07-24 · BLAST Bounty Summer 2026: Closed Qualifier
Anubis 13-6 · Mirage 6-13 · Split
9
Under 11 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
11.1
7/12 hit at 11
Online
12.3
2/6 hit at 11
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm gafolo is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 11
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 18.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 10 HS or fewer (under ~23 kills at 48% HS): below 0.564 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (11%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
10.29
Raw edge
-0.7
Cons. hit
58.1%
EV+
+0.6%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
11
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
58.1%
+5.4 →
Learned
63.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 9-13
All players · Headshots
41.3%104 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 62.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.7 below ±2.0 minimum
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 11% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (10.24) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 10.2 headshots vs line 10.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.53, HS 48%. Next: vs FURIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 10.2 against a 10.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 10.29 vs line 11 → -0.71 (-6.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 11%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
11.97
HS/Map
5.75
K/D
0.88
KPR
0.53
ADR
57.9
KAST
71.1%
HS%
48%
Multi-kill
10.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)5.4 · KPR 0.529 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Cache)4.9 · KPR 0.533 · 19.2r
Required KPR to clear0.564
Base kills (Maps 1-2)21.56
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.03%
Final projected kills21.34
× realistic HS% (48%)10.29
FURIA gives up (117 series)-8.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 11. Model: 62.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.5%
~9 HS · 34r74.4%
Normal53.5%
~11 HS · 42r51.9%
Close maps9%
~11 HS · 43r46.2%
Overtime11%
~13 HS · 49r30%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 18.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 18% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Mirage
21.4r
+6% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.2r
+7% KPR here
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)20%
Overtime11%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 11 (Under) · avg 10.2 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
11
Nearby lines
| 9 Under | 28.5% | below BE |
| 10 Under | 44.3% | below BE |
| 11 Under | 58.1% | OFFERED |
| 12 Under | 63.6% | |
| 13 Under | 65.7% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 11
Line movement
first 10.5→11+0.5
- Back on board11 → 11Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled11Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board10.5 → 11Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled10.5Oct 24, 04:10 PM
- First seen10.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.57
HS%
46.2%
K/D
0.87
Cache
9 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.58
HS%
46.6%
K/D
0.89
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.63
HS%
53.4%
K/D
0.98
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.54
HS%
50%
K/D
0.93
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.52
HS%
44.9%
K/D
0.86
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
9.8
KPR
0.49
HS%
51.3%
K/D
0.76
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Wildcard | 4 Mirage 13-4 | 4 Nuke 8-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Imperial | 5 Mirage 13-8 | 5 Inferno 13-11 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Wildcard | 7 Mirage 13-16 | 6 Cache 3-13 | 13 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | M80 | 6 Inferno 13-7 | 1 Anubis 9-13 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Wildcard | 7 Mirage 13-11 | 7 Nuke 10-13 | 14 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 3 Mirage 13-9 | 7 Ancient 16-13 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Voca | 4 Ancient 13-7 | 5 Cache 13-7 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Color | 6 Mirage 8-13 | 3 Cache 13-6 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | EYEBALLERS | 6 Ancient 11-13 | 7 Cache 13-3 | 13 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Aurora | 2 Cache 7-13 | 7 Mirage 12-16 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-26 | Spirit | 5 Ancient 8-13 | 5 Cache 7-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-09 | JiJieHao | 4 Inferno 14-16 | 8 Cache 13-9 | 12 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-07 | SAW | 11 Inferno 13-10 | 5 Anubis 13-10 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-07 | QueenConso | 7 Nuke 13-0 | 8 Anubis 13-3 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | FaZe | 5 Nuke 2-13 | 13 Mirage 13-10 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-24 | FURIA | 6 Anubis 13-6 | 3 Mirage 6-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | paiN | 3 Cache 13-11 | 8 Nuke 13-7 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-10 | BESTIA | 5 Mirage 10-13 | 9 Cache 13-8 | 14 | Split | Over ✗ |







































































































































































