KillsRisk
Line
22
Pick
OVER
Projection
22.04
Hit
44.8%
EV+
-22.4%
Edge
+0.0
L10
20%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
12
Pick
OVER
Projection
11.81
Hit
46.1%
EV+
-20.2%
Edge
-0.2
L10
30%

Rifler · IGL
Aleksib
Natus Vincere vs G2
RISK · OVER 22
BEST OVER · UD 21.5PP22UD21.5
≈ L5 20.2 · L20 20.8Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 22 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
33%
1/3
Volatility
Low
±3.95
Previous meeting · vs G2
1/3 hit · avg 22 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Cache 13-7 · Inferno 13-4 · W
20
Under 22 ✗
2026-08-30 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Ancient 6-13 · Inferno 10-13 · L
11
Under 22 ✗
2026-06-15 · Intel Extreme Masters Cologne Major 2026
Dust2 13-11 · Inferno 14-16 · Split
35
Over 22 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
20.8
8/20 hit at 22
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Aleksib is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 22
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 57.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 23+ kills: 0.484 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (51.5%) or blowout (26.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
22.04
Raw edge
+0.0
Cons. hit
44.8%
EV+
-22.4%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
45.5
Line
22
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
44.8%
+8.7 →
Learned
53.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 20-24
All players · Kills
70.4%27 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.0 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 20.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 40.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 20.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 52% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (22.83) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 19.3 kills vs line 21.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.46, HS 51%. Next: vs G2, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 19.3 against a 21.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 22.04 vs line 22 → +0.04 (0.2%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 20% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.5 rounds · 2-0 51.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
10.4
HS/Map
5.3
K/D
0.83
KPR
0.46
ADR
57.6
KAST
74.1%
HS%
51%
Multi-kill
8.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)11.8 · KPR 0.538 · 22.2r
Map 2 (Anubis)11 · KPR 0.477 · 23.3r
Required KPR to clear0.484
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.06
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.00%
Final projected kills22.83
G2 gives up (86 series)-2.3% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 22. Model: 50.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.7%
~19 kills · 38r18%
Normal46.6%
~23 kills · 47r50%
Close maps18.9%
~24 kills · 49r57.2%
Overtime7.8%
~27 kills · 55r77.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 57.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 57% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Inferno
22.2r
+17% KPR here
M2 Anubis
23.3r
+3% KPR here
Total
45.5r
2-0 sweep51.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 22 (Over) · avg 19.3 · hit 2/10 · tap a bar
22
Nearby lines
| 20 Over | 57.8% | |
| 21 Over | 52.7% | below BE |
| 22 Over | 44.8% | OFFERED |
| 23 Over | 38.8% | below BE |
| 24 Over | 33.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 22
Line movement
first 21.5→22+0.5
- Back on board22 → 22Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled22Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board21.5 → 22Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled21.5Oct 24, 04:15 PM
- First seen21.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
11.9
KPR
0.56
HS%
51.4%
K/D
0.94
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.58
HS%
46.7%
K/D
0.85
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.49
HS%
39.4%
K/D
0.81
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
10.5
KPR
0.53
HS%
65.1%
K/D
1
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
7.8
KPR
0.39
HS%
59%
K/D
0.65
Cache
4 maps
Kills
8.5
KPR
0.4
HS%
50%
K/D
0.74
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.41
HS%
46.9%
K/D
0.62
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | PARIVISION | 10 Inferno 13-8 | 7 Cache 10-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | Falcons | 8 Inferno 6-13 | 17 Anubis 19-15 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-05 | 9z | 14 Nuke 13-6 | 8 Cache 13-6 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Vitality | 9 Anubis 5-13 | 8 Nuke 13-5 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | G2 | 9 Cache 13-7 | 11 Inferno 13-4 | 20 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | MOUZ | 10 Cache 13-10 | 8 Inferno 10-13 | 18 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | Aurora | 11 Nuke 8-13 | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | G2 | 4 Ancient 6-13 | 7 Inferno 10-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | paiN | 9 Nuke 13-9 | 16 Mirage 13-11 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | M80 | 11 Anubis 13-4 | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 18 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Legacy | 11 Inferno 9-13 | 6 Ancient 2-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | The MongolZ | 11 Inferno 13-5 | 19 Ancient 9-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | G2 | 9 Dust2 13-11 | 26 Inferno 14-16 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-14 | Falcons | 4 Dust2 3-13 | 5 Mirage 13-7 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | The MongolZ | 8 Nuke 8-13 | 18 Ancient 16-13 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | Legacy | 15 Inferno 13-4 | 13 Ancient 13-10 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Spirit | 5 Dust2 1-13 | 7 Anubis 8-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-17 | GamerLegion | 2 Mirage 13-3 | 12 Anubis 13-9 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-16 | BetBoom | 15 Ancient 13-8 | 13 Nuke 13-6 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-15 | Vitality | 14 Dust2 11-13 | 10 Anubis 13-11 | 24 | Split | Over ✓ |







































































































































































