KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.12
Hit
40.4%
EV+
-30.0%
Edge
-1.4
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
10.9
Hit
54.4%
EV+
-5.7%
Edge
+0.4
L10
50%

AWPer
sn0w
UNiTY vs Acend
RISK · OVER 10.5
PP10.5
▼ L5 10.2 · L20 11.0Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 10.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
53%
10/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.07
Previous meeting · vs Acend
No meeting with Acend in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
10.3
2/4 hit at 10.5
Online · this match
11.2
8/15 hit at 10.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Sn0w is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 10.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 11+ HS (~30 kills at 37.1% HS): 0.66 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (73%) or blowout (28.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
10.9
Raw edge
+0.4
Cons. hit
54.4%
EV+
-5.7%
Rating
2.5/10
Exp. rounds
42.9
Line
10.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.4%
+8.5 →
Learned
62.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 8.5-12.5
All players · Headshots
57.5%106 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 52.6% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 73% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 52.6% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 73% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (11.2) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 10.4 headshots vs line 10.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.71, HS 37%. Next: vs Acend, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 10.4 against a 10.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- 26% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 10.9 vs line 10.5 → +0.4 (3.8%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 42.9 rounds · 2-0 73% · OT 5.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
14.84
HS/Map
5.5
K/D
1.22
KPR
0.71
ADR
71.3
KAST
76.3%
HS%
37.1%
Multi-kill
15.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)6.1 · KPR 0.771 · 21.7r
Map 2 (Cache)5.1 · KPR 0.664 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.66
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.81
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.98%
Final projected kills30.2
× realistic HS% (37.1%)10.9
Acend gives up (32 series)+1.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 10.5. Model: 55.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.4%
~9 HS · 36r31.5%
Normal52.5%
~11 HS · 45r58.3%
Close maps13.3%
~12 HS · 46r61.2%
Overtime5.8%
~13 HS · 52r75.8%
Match context
Oct 25, 09:00 AMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 60% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
21.7r
+9% KPR here
M2 Cache
21.2r
-6% KPR here
Total
42.9r
2-0 sweep73%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)19.1%
Overtime5.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 10.5 (Over) · avg 10.4 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
10.5
Nearby lines
| 8.5 Over | 65.2% | |
| 9.5 Over | 60.4% | |
| 10.5 Over | 54.4% | OFFERED |
| 11.5 Over | 44.9% | below BE |
| 12.5 Over | 33.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 10.5
Line movement
first 10.5→10.5no change
- First seen10.5Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.79
HS%
34.6%
K/D
1.37
Cache
7 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.64
HS%
39.3%
K/D
1.11
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.7
HS%
33.7%
K/D
1.18
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
51.9%
K/D
1.11
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.74
HS%
31.2%
K/D
1.3
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.73
HS%
36.4%
K/D
1.38
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.56
HS%
40%
K/D
0.77
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Betclic | 2 Ancient 13-11 | 3 Cache 6-13 | 5 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | FOKUS | 11 Mirage 13-8 | 3 Cache 7-13 | 14 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | 9INE | 3 Mirage 13-10 | 5 Cache 3-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | mellren | 5 Mirage 13-5 | 11 Inferno 13-4 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 6 Mirage 13-6 | 2 Cache 13-11 | 8 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | NT | 5 Mirage 13-9 | 7 Ancient 13-11 | 12 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | NT | 3 Mirage 13-5 | 6 Ancient 9-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | INFINITE | 5 Inferno 13-11 | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 11 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-02 | aimclub | 3 Dust2 13-5 | 6 Cache 13-4 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Illyrians | 4 Inferno 13-1 | 8 Dust2 7-13 | 12 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | Leo | 6 Ancient 16-14 | 6 Dust2 13-9 | 12 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | Phantom Academy | 4 Dust2 13-11 | 9 Ancient 13-11 | 13 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-13 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1 Cache 13-8 | 9 Mirage 6-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | ENCE | 4 Dust2 13-11 | 9 Inferno 13-9 | 13 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Leo | 6 Mirage 12-16 | 4 Dust2 7-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | MOUZ NXT | 15 Cache 13-8 | 2 Mirage 13-4 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-07 | EAC | 9 Inferno 8-13 | 4 Nuke 5-13 | 13 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | Black Phoenix | 6 Dust2 13-8 | 4 Anubis 13-2 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | INOX Division | 4 Ancient 11-13 | 3 Inferno 9-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ |








































































































































































