KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
26.69
Hit
35.5%
EV+
-38.5%
Edge
-1.8
L10
20%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
14
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.51
Hit
53.3%
EV+
-7.7%
Edge
+0.5
L10
40%

Rifler
Dytor
UNiTY vs Acend
RISK · OVER 14
PP14
▼ L5 13.4 · L20 14.8Risk · Edge +0.5 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 14 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
42%
8/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.08
Previous meeting · vs Acend
No meeting with Acend in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
14.6
2/5 hit at 14
Online · this match
14.9
6/14 hit at 14
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Dytor is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~28 kills at 53% HS): 0.596 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (73%) or blowout (28.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
14.51
Raw edge
+0.5
Cons. hit
53.3%
EV+
-7.7%
Rating
3.4/10
Exp. rounds
44.3
Line
14
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.3%
+8.5 →
Learned
61.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 12-16
All players · Headshots
60.6%216 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 42.1% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 73% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 42.1% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 73% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.98) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.9 headshots vs line 14.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 53%. Next: vs Acend, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 14.9 against a 14.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- 26% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.51 vs line 14 → +0.51 (3.6%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 40% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.3 rounds · 2-0 73% · OT 5.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
13.95
HS/Map
7.39
K/D
0.95
KPR
0.66
ADR
75.6
KAST
75.5%
HS%
53%
Multi-kill
15%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)7.5 · KPR 0.649 · 22.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.5 · KPR 0.653 · 22.1r
Required KPR to clear0.596
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.84
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.98%
Final projected kills28.27
× realistic HS% (53%)14.51
Acend gives up (32 series)+1.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14. Model: 56.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.4%
~12 HS · 37r24.9%
Normal48.1%
~15 HS · 46r54.6%
Close maps17.7%
~16 HS · 47r58.3%
Overtime5.8%
~18 HS · 53r75%
Match context
Oct 25, 09:00 AMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 60% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
22.2r
-2% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.1r
-1% KPR here
Total
44.3r
2-0 sweep73%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)23.5%
Overtime5.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14 (Over) · avg 14.9 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
14
Nearby lines
| 12 Over | 65.8% | |
| 13 Over | 60.9% | |
| 14 Over | 53.3% | OFFERED |
| 15 Over | 45.7% | below BE |
| 16 Over | 36.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14
Line movement
first 14→14no change
- First seen14Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.64
HS%
53.7%
K/D
1.01
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.65
HS%
56%
K/D
0.97
Cache
7 maps
Kills
12.1
KPR
0.56
HS%
52.9%
K/D
0.78
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.78
HS%
51.4%
K/D
1.12
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
19.4
KPR
0.79
HS%
52.6%
K/D
1.13
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
10.3
KPR
0.51
HS%
45.2%
K/D
0.62
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Betclic | 11 Ancient 13-11 | 2 Cache 6-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | FOKUS | 8 Mirage 13-8 | 3 Cache 7-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | 9INE | 8 Mirage 13-10 | 5 Cache 3-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | mellren | 8 Mirage 13-5 | 6 Inferno 13-4 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 9 Mirage 13-6 | 7 Cache 13-11 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | NT | 9 Mirage 13-9 | 12 Ancient 13-11 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | NT | 5 Mirage 13-5 | 7 Ancient 9-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | INFINITE | 5 Inferno 13-11 | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-02 | aimclub | 9 Dust2 13-5 | 10 Cache 13-4 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Illyrians | 10 Inferno 13-1 | 7 Dust2 7-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | Leo | 14 Ancient 16-14 | 8 Dust2 13-9 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-07 | INFINITE | 7 Ancient 10-13 | 8 Nuke 10-13 | 15 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | INFINITE | 6 Cache 13-9 | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | INFINITE | 11 Inferno 13-7 | 5 Mirage 13-10 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-04 | INFINITE | 5 Inferno 4-13 | 6 Dust2 13-9 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | 3DMAX | 1 Nuke 7-13 | 12 Cache 16-19 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | Black Phoenix | 14 Dust2 13-11 | 8 Mirage 13-10 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | INFINITE | 9 Dust2 10-13 | 5 Mirage 13-11 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-09 | INFINITE | 5 Nuke 5-13 | 3 Dust2 8-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | BO |








































































































































































