KillsBetter playRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.34
Hit
44.9%
EV+
-22.2%
Edge
-0.2
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
12.03
Hit
34%
EV+
-41.1%
Edge
+1.5
L10
40%

AWPer
detr0ittJ
Galorys vs paiN
RISK · UNDER 28.5
▼ L5 26.8 · L20 28.9Risk · Edge -0.2 far below ±3.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 28.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±7.55
Previous meeting · vs paiN
1/1 hit · avg 28 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-09-26 · FERJEE In House Season 2
Cache 9-13 · Dust2 5-13 · L
28
Under 28.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
26.7
5/6 hit at 28.5
Online
29.9
7/14 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm detr0ittJ is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 41.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.628 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
28.34
Raw edge
-0.2
Cons. hit
44.9%
EV+
-22.2%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
45.4
Line
28.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
44.9%
-8.4 →
Learned
36.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
46.4%334 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.6 kills vs line 28.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 43%. Next: vs paiN, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 27.6 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.34 vs line 28.5 → -0.16 (-0.6%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 45.4 rounds · 2-0 53% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.47
HS/Map
6.22
K/D
1.14
KPR
0.65
ADR
69.4
KAST
76.4%
HS%
43%
Multi-kill
14%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)13.7 · KPR 0.605 · 22.7r
Map 2 (Inferno)15.3 · KPR 0.679 · 22.7r
Required KPR to clear0.628
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.15
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.51%
Final projected kills29
paiN gives up (81 series)-3.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 28.5. Model: 50.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.7%
~24 kills · 38r77.8%
Normal50.6%
~29 kills · 46r51.8%
Close maps16.7%
~30 kills · 49r42%
Overtime10%
~34 kills · 55r24%
Match context
Oct 24, 06:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 41.0%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 41% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Ancient
22.7r
-7% KPR here
M2 Inferno
22.7r
+4% KPR here
Total
45.4r
2-0 sweep53%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Under) · avg 27.6 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Under | 36.6% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 41.8% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 44.9% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Under | 48.1% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 51.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28.5
Line movement
first 28.5→offno change
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 06:00 PM
- Back on board28.5 → 28.5Oct 24, 05:12 AM
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 05:11 AM
- First seen28.5Oct 24, 05:11 AM
Map stats
Ancient
16 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.6
HS%
48.2%
K/D
1.04
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
15.9
KPR
0.69
HS%
39.2%
K/D
1.15
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.78
HS%
44.9%
K/D
1.42
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
31.9%
K/D
1.25
Cache
3 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.72
HS%
34.1%
K/D
1.13
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.57
HS%
59.3%
K/D
1.04
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | BESTIA | 12 Ancient 9-13 | 11 Inferno 11-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 16 Anubis 13-9 | 11 Inferno 9-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 9 Inferno 6-13 | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 13 Anubis 8-13 | 28 Inferno 16-14 | 41 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-14 | LP | 12 Inferno 5-13 | 14 Ancient 13-3 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | ex-Keyd Stars | 17 Dust2 13-6 | 16 Ancient 16-14 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-12 | Bounty Hunters | 12 Cache 13-6 | 9 Ancient 9-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Yawara | 19 Anubis 13-4 | 18 Ancient 13-2 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | MEIA NOITE | 13 Dust2 8-13 | 6 Ancient 13-6 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | Turma do Pagode | 15 Ancient 13-10 | 17 Nuke 13-11 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | Grêmio | 10 Inferno 11-13 | 37 Ancient 25-28 | 47 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-04 | Turma do Pagode | 12 Anubis 13-4 | 10 Nuke 10-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Procyon | 23 Inferno 13-4 | 10 Ancient 13-6 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BESTIA Academy | 15 Dust2 13-6 | 17 Ancient 13-7 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-02 | Grêmio | 24 Inferno 19-16 | 16 Ancient 13-9 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | Turma do Pagode | 18 Anubis 10-13 | 9 Ancient 7-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Procyon | 15 Inferno 6-13 | 11 Ancient 13-9 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Bounty Hunters | 15 Cache 7-13 | 9 Ancient 13-8 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | paiN | 17 Cache 9-13 | 11 Dust2 5-13 | 28 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | METANOIA Wolves | 13 Dust2 13-5 | 11 Ancient 13-10 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































