KillsBetter playRisk
Line
27
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.08
Hit
50.1%
EV+
-13.2%
Edge
-1.9
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
16.28
Hit
49.2%
EV+
-14.8%
Edge
-1.2
L10
40%
#160Ranked 160 of 277 on the board

Rifler
malbsMd
Liquid vs FUT
RISK · UNDER 27
BEST UNDER · UD 27.5PP27UD27.5SL27.5
▼ L5 25.2 · L20 27.4Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 27 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
63%
12/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±9.69
Previous meeting · vs FUT
No meeting with FUT in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
27.4
12/19 hit at 27
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm malbsMd is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 27.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 26 kills or fewer: below 0.687 KPR over ~39 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10.5%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
25.08
Raw edge
-1.9
Cons. hit
50.1%
EV+
-13.2%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
39.3
Line
27
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.1%
-8.7 →
Learned
41.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 25-29
All players · Kills
44.9%265 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 57.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.9 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 63.2% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (25.03) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.8 kills vs line 27.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 66%. Next: vs FUT, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 29.8 against a 27.0 line
Biggest risk: 34% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 34% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 25.08 vs line 27 → -1.92 (-7.1%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 39.3 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 10.5%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
13.68
HS/Map
9.05
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.69
ADR
78.2
KAST
70.5%
HS%
66.2%
Multi-kill
17.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)12.1 · KPR 0.648 · 19.1r
Map 2 (Cache)12.9 · KPR 0.65 · 20.2r
Required KPR to clear0.687
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.51
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.89%
Final projected kills25.03
FUT gives up (43 series)+1.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 27. Model: 57.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps39.3%
~21 kills · 33r76.4%
Normal45.9%
~27 kills · 42r51.5%
Close maps4.3%
~27 kills · 42r52.5%
Overtime10.5%
~31 kills · 48r36.8%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 27.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 28% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Anubis
19.1r
M2 Cache
20.2r
Total
39.3r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)14.8%
Overtime10.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)39.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27 (Under) · avg 29.8 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
27
Nearby lines
| 25 Under | 43.3% | below BE |
| 26 Under | 45.7% | below BE |
| 27 Under | 50.1% | OFFERED |
| 28 Under | 52.5% | below BE |
| 29 Under | 54.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27
Line movement
first 27→27no change
- First seen27Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Anubis
8 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.69
HS%
71.3%
K/D
1.09
Cache
8 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.69
HS%
63.2%
K/D
1.14
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
10.9
KPR
0.55
HS%
76.3%
K/D
0.78
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.66
HS%
58.5%
K/D
1.02
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
20
KPR
0.89
HS%
68.8%
K/D
1.48
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
9.2
KPR
0.53
HS%
54.1%
K/D
0.74
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
20
KPR
0.69
HS%
60%
K/D
0.87
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | MOUZ | 20 Ancient 13-16 | 16 Inferno 16-12 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | magic | 7 Anubis 10-13 | 16 Dust2 10-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | fnatic | 11 Inferno 7-13 | 6 Cache 4-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 15 Mirage 13-9 | 11 Nuke 10-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-13 | JiJieHao | 18 Mirage 13-11 | 6 Cache 13-2 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | 100 Thieves | 3 Dust2 0-13 | 11 Inferno 13-8 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | BBL | 18 Nuke 9-13 | 22 Mirage 13-8 | 40 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Wildcard | 20 Inferno 13-4 | 21 Anubis 13-9 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 24 Cache 16-13 | 17 Anubis 13-2 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | NRG | 11 Dust2 13-11 | 25 Mirage 13-10 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Chicken Coop | 12 Inferno 13-3 | 18 Cache 13-4 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-09 | 1win | 10 Dust2 5-13 | 14 Anubis 13-6 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-08 | Metizport | 13 Cache 13-9 | 12 Inferno 13-10 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Dhala | 19 Dust2 13-4 | 0 Nuke 0-1 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-05 | Betclic | 18 Cache 13-11 | 14 Anubis 10-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-05 | fnatic | 10 Dust2 13-10 | 14 Anubis 13-5 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-04 | 9INE | 14 Cache 13-4 | 11 Anubis 13-6 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-01 | Betclic | 18 Cache 12-16 | 8 Nuke 13-11 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-30 | Spirit | 7 Dust2 7-13 | 10 Anubis 5-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































