KillsBetter playRisk
Line
29
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.68
Hit
57.8%
EV+
+0.1%
Edge
+1.7
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.74
Hit
56.1%
EV+
-2.9%
Edge
+1.2
L10
50%
#76Ranked 76 of 277 on the board

Rifler
b1t
Natus Vincere vs FURIA
RISK · OVER 17.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP17.5UD17.5SL17.5
▲ L5 19.4 · L20 18.4Risk · Edge +1.2 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 17.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±6.02
Previous meeting · vs FURIA
No meeting with FURIA in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18.4
12/20 hit at 17.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm b1t is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 43.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 18+ HS (~30 kills at 59.6% HS): 0.697 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (52.5%) or blowout (26.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
18.74
Raw edge
+1.2
Cons. hit
56.1%
EV+
-2.9%
Rating
4.1/10
Exp. rounds
42.1
Line
17.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
56.1%
+8.4 →
Learned
64.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 15.5-19.5
All players · Headshots
59.3%204 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.2 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 52% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (18.46) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.7 headshots vs line 17.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 60%. Next: vs FURIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.7 against a 17.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 18.74 vs line 17.5 → +1.24 (7.1%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 42.1 rounds · 2-0 52.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.43
HS/Map
9.2
K/D
1.16
KPR
0.66
ADR
73.7
KAST
77.1%
HS%
59.6%
Multi-kill
15.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)8.6 · KPR 0.687 · 21.2r
Map 2 (Nuke)9.8 · KPR 0.797 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.697
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.22
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.79%
Final projected kills30.98
× realistic HS% (59.6%)18.74
FURIA gives up (117 series)-8.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 17.5. Model: 58.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.4%
~16 HS · 35r34.2%
Normal46.9%
~19 HS · 43r58.6%
Close maps16.7%
~20 HS · 45r64.9%
Overtime10%
~23 HS · 51r79.5%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 43.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 44% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Inferno
21.2r
+4% KPR here
M2 Nuke
20.9r
+20% KPR here
Total
42.1r
2-0 sweep52.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17.5 (Over) · avg 17.7 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
17.5
Nearby lines
| 15.5 Over | 61.6% | |
| 16.5 Over | 59.2% | |
| 17.5 Over | 56.1% | OFFERED |
| 18.5 Over | 52.4% | below BE |
| 19.5 Over | 48.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17.5
Line movement
first 17.5→17.5no change
- First seen17.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.69
HS%
59.1%
K/D
1.19
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.85
HS%
58.5%
K/D
1.41
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.74
HS%
69.5%
K/D
1.12
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
52.6%
K/D
1.09
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.68
HS%
53.9%
K/D
1.15
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.61
HS%
60.3%
K/D
0.91
Cache
4 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
63.2%
K/D
1.19
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | G2 | 14 Nuke 13-11 | 15 Dust2 22-19 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-07 | PARIVISION | 5 Inferno 13-8 | 7 Cache 10-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | Falcons | 8 Inferno 6-13 | 13 Anubis 19-15 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-05 | 9z | 13 Nuke 13-6 | 9 Cache 13-6 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Vitality | 2 Anubis 5-13 | 11 Nuke 13-5 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | G2 | 14 Cache 13-7 | 9 Inferno 13-4 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | MOUZ | 6 Cache 13-10 | 15 Inferno 10-13 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | Aurora | 9 Nuke 8-13 | 5 Mirage 7-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | G2 | 5 Ancient 6-13 | 4 Inferno 10-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | paiN | 9 Nuke 13-9 | 4 Mirage 13-11 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | M80 | 11 Anubis 13-4 | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Legacy | 8 Inferno 9-13 | 11 Ancient 2-13 | 19 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | The MongolZ | 7 Inferno 13-5 | 9 Ancient 9-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | G2 | 10 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Inferno 14-16 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-14 | Falcons | 7 Dust2 3-13 | 12 Mirage 13-7 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | The MongolZ | 10 Nuke 8-13 | 17 Ancient 16-13 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | Legacy | 11 Inferno 13-4 | 8 Ancient 13-10 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Spirit | 3 Dust2 1-13 | 9 Anubis 8-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-17 | GamerLegion | 9 Mirage 13-3 | 6 Anubis 13-9 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-16 | BetBoom | 16 Ancient 13-8 | 6 Nuke 13-6 | 22 | W | Over ✓ |








































































































































































