KillsLean
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23.02
Hit
58%
EV+
+0.5%
Edge
-2.5
L10
70%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
9.09
Hit
58.7%
EV+
+1.7%
Edge
-1.4
L10
80%
#54Ranked 54 of 277 on the board

Rifler
zont1x
Team Spirit vs TYLOO
LEAN · UNDER 25.5
BEST UNDER · PP 25.5PP25.5UD24.5SL25.5
▼ L5 22.2 · L20 24.9LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 25.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.11
Previous meeting · vs TYLOO
No meeting with TYLOO in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
24.9
11/20 hit at 25.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm zont1x is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 25.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 89.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 25 kills or fewer: below 0.641 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
23.02
Raw edge
-2.5
Cons. hit
58%
EV+
+0.5%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
39.8
Line
25.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
58%
+6.8 →
Learned
64.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 23.5-27.5
All players · Kills
43%207 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 78.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- Under risk — team 90% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (23.37) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 23.1 kills vs line 25.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.55, HS 42%. Next: vs TYLOO, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 23.1 against a 25.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (68%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (68%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 23.02 vs line 25.5 → -2.48 (-9.7%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 39.8 rounds · 2-0 67.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.43
HS/Map
5.17
K/D
0.89
KPR
0.55
ADR
65.9
KAST
69.1%
HS%
41.6%
Multi-kill
11.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)11.6 · KPR 0.581 · 20.2r
Map 2 (Ancient)11.8 · KPR 0.612 · 19.6r
Required KPR to clear0.641
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.74
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.54%
Final projected kills23.37
TYLOO gives up (35 series)-7.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 25.5. Model: 78.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.4%
~19 kills · 33r91%
Normal37.6%
~24 kills · 41r66.9%
Close maps27.2%
~25 kills · 43r58.1%
Overtime7.8%
~28 kills · 49r32.5%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 89.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 90% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
20.2r
-2% KPR here
M2 Ancient
19.6r
+4% KPR here
Total
39.8r
2-0 sweep67.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 25.5 (Under) · avg 23.1 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
25.5
Nearby lines
| 23.5 Under | 39.1% | below BE |
| 24.5 Under | 48.4% | below BE |
| 25.5 Under | 58% | OFFERED |
| 26.5 Under | 64.3% | |
| 27.5 Under | 65.4% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 25.5
Line movement
first 25.5→25.5no change
- First seen25.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.54
HS%
43%
K/D
0.92
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.58
HS%
40.5%
K/D
0.88
Cache
7 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.54
HS%
43%
K/D
0.88
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.63
HS%
39.8%
K/D
0.92
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.57
HS%
42.5%
K/D
0.87
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.57
HS%
39.5%
K/D
0.88
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | BetBoom | 14 Anubis 13-10 | 3 Ancient 3-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Aurora | 15 Mirage 9-13 | 8 Anubis 6-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | MOUZ | 11 Dust2 7-13 | 15 Mirage 13-5 | 26 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Falcons | 9 Mirage 13-8 | 10 Anubis 13-10 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | M80 | 13 Dust2 13-6 | 13 Cache 13-10 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 1win | 5 Cache 5-13 | 21 Anubis 9-13 | 26 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | MOUZ | 7 Dust2 5-13 | 17 Mirage 11-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | PARIVISION | 9 Ancient 11-13 | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | ShindeN | 12 Dust2 11-13 | 13 Nuke 13-11 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-06 | MOUZ | 13 Dust2 13-8 | 12 Mirage 11-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Falcons | 12 Nuke 13-8 | 20 Ancient 13-11 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FURIA | 12 Ancient 13-10 | 13 Cache 13-5 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | G2 | 9 Dust2 13-6 | 9 Cache 13-9 | 18 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | DENDELE | 17 Ancient 13-8 | 10 Cache 13-7 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FUT | 15 Cache 10-13 | 17 Anubis 16-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | Legacy | 16 Dust2 13-7 | 10 Ancient 13-9 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Vitality | 10 Anubis 13-11 | 18 Nuke 14-16 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | B8 | 5 Dust2 13-9 | 15 Mirage 13-9 | 20 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-15 | BIG | 14 Cache 9-13 | 11 Dust2 13-10 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Luminosity | 13 Ancient 13-3 | 20 Dust2 19-15 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |








































































































































































