KillsBetter playRisk
Line
25
Pick
OVER
Projection
25.26
Hit
45.7%
EV+
-20.8%
Edge
+0.3
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
11.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
11.21
Hit
45%
EV+
-22.0%
Edge
-0.3
L10
60%
#233Ranked 233 of 277 on the board

Rifler · IGL
bLitz
The MongolZ vs Vitality
RISK · OVER 25
BEST OVER · UD 24.5PP25UD24.5SL24.5
≈ L5 27.8 · L20 28.1Risk · Edge +0.3 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 25 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.41
Previous meeting · vs Vitality
No meeting with Vitality in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
27.9
11/18 hit at 25
Online
29
2/2 hit at 25
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm bLitz is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 25
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 19.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 26+ kills: 0.623 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (63.5%) or blowout (33.6%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
25.26
Raw edge
+0.3
Cons. hit
45.7%
EV+
-20.8%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.1
Line
25
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
45.7%
+8.7 →
Learned
54.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 23-27
All players · Kills
57.1%140 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- Blowout loss risk — team only 20% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 64% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (24.18) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.5 kills vs line 25.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 47%. Next: vs Vitality, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 27.5 against a 25.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 25.26 vs line 25 → +0.26 (1.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.1 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.03
HS/Map
6.6
K/D
0.99
KPR
0.67
ADR
79.7
KAST
73.9%
HS%
47.1%
Multi-kill
16.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)11.1 · KPR 0.579 · 19.5r
Map 2 (Nuke)13.1 · KPR 0.646 · 20.6r
Required KPR to clear0.623
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.59
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.69%
Final projected kills24.18
Vitality gives up (100 series)-10.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 25. Model: 52% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps33.6%
~21 kills · 34r18%
Normal43.9%
~27 kills · 42r56.9%
Close maps12.5%
~27 kills · 43r60.1%
Overtime10%
~31 kills · 49r82.4%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 19.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 20% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Inferno
19.5r
-8% KPR here
M2 Nuke
20.6r
+3% KPR here
Total
40.1r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)33.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 25 (Over) · avg 27.5 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
25
Nearby lines
| 23 Over | 56% | below BE |
| 24 Over | 52.1% | below BE |
| 25 Over | 45.7% | OFFERED |
| 26 Over | 41.3% | below BE |
| 27 Over | 37% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 25
Line movement
first 25→25no change
- First seen25Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.6
HS%
47%
K/D
0.94
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.67
HS%
46.1%
K/D
1
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.7
HS%
51.4%
K/D
0.98
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
37.9%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.69
HS%
54.8%
K/D
1.03
Cache
3 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.59
HS%
45.7%
K/D
0.8
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.76
HS%
50%
K/D
1.04
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Aurora | 14 Inferno 12-16 | 9 Nuke 13-2 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | PARIVISION | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 17 Mirage 13-11 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | BIG | 8 Cache 4-13 | 13 Inferno 13-3 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | PRIVATE | 15 Mirage 13-6 | 19 Ancient 13-7 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | magic | 10 Inferno 13-9 | 19 Ancient 13-10 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | BIG | 11 Cache 8-13 | 11 Mirage 4-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-19 | Alliance | 19 Inferno 13-8 | 16 Dust2 13-11 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | 5star | 9 Inferno 9-13 | 16 Nuke 11-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | MIBR | 14 Ancient 13-5 | 19 Mirage 10-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Falcons | 9 Inferno 3-13 | 12 Dust2 9-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | paiN | 22 Nuke 13-10 | 15 Inferno 13-4 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Natus Vincere | 8 Inferno 5-13 | 13 Ancient 13-9 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-31 | FaZe | 15 Nuke 12-16 | 18 Mirage 13-7 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | Wildcard | 15 Dust2 13-7 | 13 Inferno 13-9 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-24 | HEROIC | 14 Nuke 5-13 | 16 Cache 13-8 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | 9z | 10 Inferno 8-13 | 11 Overpass 8-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Monte | 13 Nuke 9-13 | 14 Inferno 13-7 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-13 | Natus Vincere | 16 Nuke 13-8 | 15 Ancient 13-16 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | B8 | 14 Mirage 16-14 | 17 Overpass 13-3 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-06-11 | BetBoom | 19 Dust2 13-11 | 8 Mirage 6-13 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ |








































































































































































