KillsRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
25.9
Hit
46.2%
EV+
-19.9%
Edge
+0.4
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
13.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.94
Hit
52.3%
EV+
-9.3%
Edge
+0.4
L10
70%

Rifler
Jerr1
MEIA NOITE vs Tropa do KinGui
RISK · OVER 13.5
▲ L5 15.4 · L20 13.6Risk · Edge +0.4 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 13.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
53%
9/17
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.47
Previous meeting · vs Tropa do KinGui
No meeting with Tropa do KinGui in his last 17 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
13.6
9/17 hit at 13.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Jerr1 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 13.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 35.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 14+ HS (~26 kills at 53.8% HS): 0.615 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (47%) or blowout (25%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
13.94
Raw edge
+0.4
Cons. hit
52.3%
EV+
-9.3%
Rating
2.5/10
Exp. rounds
40.8
Line
13.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52.3%
-5.9 →
Learned
46.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 11.5-15.5
All players · Headshots
60.7%224 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 52.9% at this line
- Blowout loss risk — team only 35% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 17 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 52.9% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 47% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (13.31) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.3 headshots vs line 13.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 54%. Next: vs Tropa do KinGui, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 14.3 against a 13.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.94 vs line 13.5 → +0.44 (3.3%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.8 rounds · 2-0 47% · OT 11.5%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
12.62
HS/Map
6.79
K/D
0.89
KPR
0.62
ADR
68.1
KAST
73.4%
HS%
53.8%
Multi-kill
13.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)6.8 · KPR 0.619 · 20.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)6.5 · KPR 0.599 · 20.3r
Required KPR to clear0.615
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.83
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.36%
Final projected kills24.75
× realistic HS% (53.8%)13.94
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 13.5. Model: 55% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25%
~12 HS · 34r29.1%
Normal35%
~14 HS · 40r50.6%
Close maps28.5%
~15 HS · 44r62.4%
Overtime11.5%
~17 HS · 50r79%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMOnline CCT South America 2026 Series 7
Win chance source: Polymarket 35.0%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 35% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Ancient
20.5r
+7% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.3r
+3% KPR here
Total
40.8r
2-0 sweep47%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)40%
Overtime11.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 13.5 (Over) · avg 14.3 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
13.5
Nearby lines
| 11.5 Over | 63.1% | |
| 12.5 Over | 59.7% | |
| 13.5 Over | 52.3% | OFFERED |
| 14.5 Over | 43.7% | below BE |
| 15.5 Over | 33.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 13.5
Line movement
first 13.5→offno change
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 04:12 PM
- Moved up13.5 → 14.5Oct 24, 02:34 PM
- Back on board13.5 → 13.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled13.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen13.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.67
HS%
57.6%
K/D
1.02
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.64
HS%
56.2%
K/D
1.01
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.56
HS%
50%
K/D
0.82
Cache
3 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.47
HS%
46.7%
K/D
0.71
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.51
HS%
40.7%
K/D
0.61
Mirage
3 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.45
HS%
48.1%
K/D
0.6
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Procyon | 1 Inferno 2-13 | 14 Dust2 13-9 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Galorys | 4 Dust2 13-8 | 9 Ancient 6-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | ALKA | 10 Ancient 13-6 | 7 Dust2 13-8 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-08 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 7 Inferno 10-13 | 9 Ancient 13-10 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-30 | METANOIA Wolves | 5 Ancient 6-13 | 11 Dust2 13-11 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-29 | ALKA | 2 Nuke 7-13 | 5 Dust2 9-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 5 Dust2 13-4 | 5 Ancient 13-8 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | ALKA | 4 Nuke 13-10 | 10 Dust2 12-16 | 14 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | Low Cortisol BR | 9 Ancient 8-13 | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Turma do Pagode | 8 Nuke 11-13 | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 15 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Mira | 3 Dust2 2-13 | 21 Ancient 16-12 | 24 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-19 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 4 Ancient 8-13 | 8 Cache 13-16 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | Bounty Hunters | 4 Cache 4-13 | 4 Mirage 8-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | Grêmio | 11 Nuke 13-9 | 8 Ancient 11-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | Procyon | 8 Ancient 10-13 | 3 Inferno 2-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | ex-MIBR Academy | 3 Ancient 5-13 | 7 Mirage 13-16 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-27 | Sementes do Mal | 2 Cache 13-5 | 2 Mirage 4-6 | 4 | W | Under ✗ | BO |









































































































































































