KillsBetter playRisk
Line
29
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.49
Hit
56.1%
EV+
-2.8%
Edge
+1.5
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.31
Hit
55.2%
EV+
-4.4%
Edge
+0.8
L10
50%

Rifler
b1t
Natus Vincere vs G2
RISK · OVER 29
BEST OVER · PP 29PP29UD29.5
▼ L5 28.8 · L20 30.6Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 29 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
67%
2/3
Volatility
Low
±6.05
Previous meeting · vs G2
2/3 hit · avg 28.3 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Cache 13-7 · Inferno 13-4 · W
34
Over 29 ✓
2026-08-30 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Ancient 6-13 · Inferno 10-13 · L
15
Under 29 ✗
2026-06-15 · Intel Extreme Masters Cologne Major 2026
Dust2 13-11 · Inferno 14-16 · Split
36
Over 29 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
30.6
14/20 hit at 29
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm b1t is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 57.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 30+ kills: 0.637 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (51.5%) or blowout (26.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
30.49
Raw edge
+1.5
Cons. hit
56.1%
EV+
-2.8%
Rating
2.9/10
Exp. rounds
45.5
Line
29
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
56.1%
+8.4 →
Learned
64.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 27-31
All players · Kills
55.5%299 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 52% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (31.22) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.3 kills vs line 30.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 59%. Next: vs G2, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 28.3 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 30.49 vs line 29 → +1.49 (5.1%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.5 rounds · 2-0 51.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.28
HS/Map
8.97
K/D
1.19
KPR
0.68
ADR
73.2
KAST
77%
HS%
58.8%
Multi-kill
16.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)15.2 · KPR 0.69 · 22.2r
Map 2 (Anubis)16.1 · KPR 0.696 · 23.3r
Required KPR to clear0.637
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.53
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.00%
Final projected kills31.22
G2 gives up (86 series)-2.3% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 29. Model: 59.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.7%
~26 kills · 38r22.2%
Normal46.6%
~31 kills · 47r61.8%
Close maps18.9%
~33 kills · 49r69.6%
Overtime7.8%
~37 kills · 55r87.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 57.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 57% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Inferno
22.2r
+2% KPR here
M2 Anubis
23.3r
+3% KPR here
Total
45.5r
2-0 sweep51.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29 (Over) · avg 28.3 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
29
Nearby lines
| 27 Over | 62.6% | |
| 28 Over | 59.2% | |
| 29 Over | 56.1% | OFFERED |
| 30 Over | 50.5% | below BE |
| 31 Over | 46.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29
Line movement
first 30.5→29-1.5
- Back on board29 → 29Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled29Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board30.5 → 29Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled30.5Oct 24, 04:15 PM
- First seen30.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.69
HS%
59.1%
K/D
1.19
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.74
HS%
69.5%
K/D
1.12
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.71
HS%
54.2%
K/D
1.23
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.89
HS%
54.2%
K/D
1.51
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
52.6%
K/D
1.09
Cache
4 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
63.2%
K/D
1.19
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.62
HS%
60.4%
K/D
0.96
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | PARIVISION | 13 Inferno 13-8 | 13 Cache 10-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | Falcons | 11 Inferno 6-13 | 21 Anubis 19-15 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-05 | 9z | 18 Nuke 13-6 | 12 Cache 13-6 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Vitality | 2 Anubis 5-13 | 20 Nuke 13-5 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | G2 | 19 Cache 13-7 | 15 Inferno 13-4 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | MOUZ | 13 Cache 13-10 | 22 Inferno 10-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | Aurora | 18 Nuke 8-13 | 10 Mirage 7-13 | 28 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | G2 | 9 Ancient 6-13 | 6 Inferno 10-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | paiN | 18 Nuke 13-9 | 17 Mirage 13-11 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | M80 | 16 Anubis 13-4 | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Legacy | 11 Inferno 9-13 | 11 Ancient 2-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | The MongolZ | 15 Inferno 13-5 | 16 Ancient 9-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | G2 | 16 Dust2 13-11 | 20 Inferno 14-16 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-14 | Falcons | 12 Dust2 3-13 | 18 Mirage 13-7 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | The MongolZ | 19 Nuke 8-13 | 27 Ancient 16-13 | 46 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | Legacy | 19 Inferno 13-4 | 13 Ancient 13-10 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Spirit | 6 Dust2 1-13 | 24 Anubis 8-13 | 30 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-17 | GamerLegion | 21 Mirage 13-3 | 13 Anubis 13-9 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-16 | BetBoom | 19 Ancient 13-8 | 14 Nuke 13-6 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-15 | Vitality | 14 Dust2 11-13 | 20 Anubis 13-11 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ |







































































































































































