KillsRisk
Line
31
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.25
Hit
53.8%
EV+
-6.9%
Edge
+0.3
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.58
Hit
58.4%
EV+
+1.2%
Edge
+0.6
L10
70%

Rifler
NertZ
G2 vs Natus Vincere
RISK · OVER 16
BEST OVER · UD 15.5PP16UD15.5
▲ L5 17.6 · L20 16.4Risk · Edge +0.6 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 16 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Low
±3.75
Previous meeting · vs Natus Vincere
1/2 hit · avg 15 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Cache 7-13 · Inferno 4-13 · L
17
Over 16 ✓
2026-08-30 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Ancient 13-6 · Inferno 13-10 · W
13
Under 16 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16.5
10/19 hit at 16
Online
16
0/1 hit at 16
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Nertz is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 42.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~33 kills at 52.2% HS): 0.733 KPR over ~42 rounds. His Kills line is 31: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (51.5%) or blowout (24.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.58
Raw edge
+0.6
Cons. hit
58.4%
EV+
+1.2%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
41.8
Line
16
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
58.4%
+8.2 →
Learned
66.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 14-18
All players · Headshots
59%234 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.6 below ±2.0 minimum
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 52% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.14) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.6 headshots vs line 16.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.77, HS 52%. Next: vs Natus Vincere, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.6 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 16.58 vs line 16 → +0.58 (3.6%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 41.8 rounds · 2-0 51.5% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.75
HS/Map
8.22
K/D
1.1
KPR
0.77
ADR
89.2
KAST
74.7%
HS%
52.2%
Multi-kill
20.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)8.3 · KPR 0.762 · 21r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.8 · KPR 0.72 · 20.8r
Required KPR to clear0.733
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.98
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.16%
Final projected kills30.93
× realistic HS% (52.2%)16.58
Natus Vincere gives up (51 series)-2.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16. Model: 56.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.5%
~14 HS · 35r24.2%
Normal48.8%
~17 HS · 42r49%
Close maps12.3%
~18 HS · 45r59.8%
Overtime14.4%
~20 HS · 51r78%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 42.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 42% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
21r
-1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.8r
-6% KPR here
Total
41.8r
2-0 sweep51.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16 (Over) · avg 17.6 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
16
Nearby lines
| 14 Over | 65.3% | |
| 15 Over | 62.4% | |
| 16 Over | 58.4% | OFFERED |
| 17 Over | 46.7% | below BE |
| 18 Over | 40.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16
Line movement
first 16.5→16-0.5
- Back on board17.5 → 16Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled17.5Oct 24, 04:15 PM
- Moved up16.5 → 17.5Oct 24, 12:59 AM
- First seen16.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
15.9
KPR
0.76
HS%
49.2%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.7
HS%
59%
K/D
1.16
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.63
HS%
47.6%
K/D
0.89
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.8
HS%
56.1%
K/D
1.22
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
16.6
KPR
0.71
HS%
47%
K/D
1.04
Cache
4 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.8
HS%
56.9%
K/D
1.25
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | PARIVISION | 8 Ancient 7-13 | 13 Anubis 13-9 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | ShindeN | 12 Dust2 13-6 | 9 Ancient 13-9 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 1win | 9 Dust2 11-13 | 8 Ancient 13-1 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Natus Vincere | 10 Cache 7-13 | 7 Inferno 4-13 | 17 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Legacy | 5 Ancient 9-13 | 7 Mirage 10-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | BetBoom | 3 Mirage 7-13 | 12 Anubis 16-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | FURIA | 10 Ancient 16-14 | 7 Dust2 13-3 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | 5star | 5 Inferno 13-9 | 7 Ancient 13-4 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | 9z | 10 Dust2 11-13 | 10 Ancient 13-8 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | BIG | 12 Cache 8-13 | 12 Mirage 13-7 | 24 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Astralis | 5 Ancient 9-13 | 11 Mirage 19-17 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Falcons | 3 Inferno 6-13 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Aurora | 10 Anubis 7-13 | 8 Inferno 19-16 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | Natus Vincere | 5 Ancient 13-6 | 8 Inferno 13-10 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Spirit | 4 Dust2 6-13 | 4 Cache 9-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | Aurora | 9 Inferno 13-5 | 7 Anubis 16-12 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-20 | FURIA | 6 Ancient 3-13 | 8 Anubis 13-3 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-19 | Astralis | 10 Ancient 6-13 | 7 Dust2 13-6 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-13 | BIG | 11 Cache 13-5 | 11 Ancient 13-16 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-25 | Liquid | 10 Anubis 6-13 | 6 Mirage 5-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | BO |







































































































































































