KillsRisk
Line
21
Pick
OVER
Projection
22.37
Hit
56.1%
EV+
-2.9%
Edge
+1.4
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
13
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.55
Hit
59.8%
EV+
+3.6%
Edge
+1.6
L10
60%

Rifler · IGL
Mercury
TYLOO vs FUT
RISK · OVER 21
BEST OVER · PP 21PP21UD22.5
▼ L5 21.4 · L20 23.1Risk · Edge +1.4 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 21 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
63%
10/16
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±5.54
Previous meeting · vs FUT
0/1 hit · avg 21 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Nuke 9-13 · Ancient 6-13 · L
21
Under 21 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
21
6/11 hit at 21
Online · this match
27.6
4/5 hit at 21
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Mercury is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 21
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 22+ kills: 0.537 KPR over ~39 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (29.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
22.37
Raw edge
+1.4
Cons. hit
56.1%
EV+
-2.9%
Rating
4.8/10
Exp. rounds
39.1
Line
21
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
56.1%
+4.4 →
Learned
60.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 19-23
All players · Kills
76.9%13 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.4 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 16 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 62.5% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (22.79) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 21.6 kills vs line 24.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.54, HS 63%. Next: vs FUT, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 21.6 against a 24.5 line
Biggest risk: 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 22.37 vs line 21 → +1.37 (6.5%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 39.1 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 1.4%
Performance (last 32 maps)
Kills/Map
11.53
HS/Map
7.31
K/D
0.9
KPR
0.54
ADR
60.7
KAST
72.7%
HS%
63.4%
Multi-kill
12.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)10.2 · KPR 0.549 · 19r
Map 2 (Ancient)12.5 · KPR 0.636 · 20.1r
Required KPR to clear0.537
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.21
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.84%
Final projected kills22.79
FUT gives up (43 series)+1.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 21. Model: 59.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps29.7%
~19 kills · 33r26.8%
Normal58.3%
~24 kills · 42r66%
Close maps10.6%
~24 kills · 42r67%
Overtime1.4%
~27 kills · 48r85.7%
Match context
Oct 24, 07:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Mirage
19r
+2% KPR here
M2 Ancient
20.1r
+18% KPR here
Total
39.1r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)12%
Overtime1.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 21 (Over) · avg 21.6 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
21
Nearby lines
| 19 Over | 62.7% | |
| 20 Over | 60.6% | |
| 21 Over | 56.1% | OFFERED |
| 22 Over | 48.3% | below BE |
| 23 Over | 44.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 21
Line movement
first 24.5→21-3.5
- Back on board24.5 → 21Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled24.5Oct 24, 07:00 AM
- First seen24.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
10.1
KPR
0.55
HS%
67.3%
K/D
0.9
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
11.9
KPR
0.58
HS%
61.4%
K/D
0.89
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.68
HS%
60.2%
K/D
1.07
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.61
HS%
60%
K/D
0.92
Cache
2 maps
Kills
10.5
KPR
0.53
HS%
71.4%
K/D
0.75
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
6
KPR
0.3
HS%
83.3%
K/D
0.35
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | FUT | 12 Nuke 9-13 | 9 Ancient 6-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | M80 | 18 Mirage 13-10 | 9 Cache 7-13 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 9z | 10 Nuke 10-13 | 4 Mirage 2-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Falcons | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 6 Anubis 7-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Alliance | 13 Inferno 11-13 | 16 Ancient 11-13 | 29 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | GamerLegion | 13 Ancient 13-7 | 9 Mirage 13-6 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | PARIVISION | 16 Inferno 11-13 | 6 Ancient 4-13 | 22 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | DEPO | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 9 Inferno 13-2 | 18 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | Kaleido | 18 Mirage 13-5 | 13 Inferno 13-9 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | Lynn Vision | 13 Nuke 8-13 | 3 Inferno 4-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-12 | Lynn Vision | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 23 Inferno 10-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | The Huns | 17 Ancient 13-9 | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | The MongolZ Academy | 17 Ancient 13-3 | 8 Mirage 13-1 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-09 | 9z | 13 Nuke 9-13 | 13 Mirage 13-7 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-03 | EYEBALLERS | 17 Nuke 13-6 | 12 Cache 13-7 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-09 | Legacy | 3 Mirage 7-13 | 6 Inferno 4-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | BO |







































































































































































