KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.73
Hit
50.7%
EV+
-12.2%
Edge
+0.7
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.04
Hit
50.2%
EV+
-13.1%
Edge
+1.0
L10
20%

Rifler
Jimpphat
Aurora vs The MongolZ
RISK · OVER 16
BEST OVER · UD 15.5PP16UD15.5
▼ L5 15.8 · L20 17.3Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 16 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
35%
7/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±5.22
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
0/1 hit · avg 14 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Inferno 16-12 · Nuke 2-13 · Split
14
Under 16 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
17.3
7/20 hit at 16
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Jimpphat is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~30 kills at 56.6% HS): 0.625 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (22.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.04
Raw edge
+1.0
Cons. hit
50.2%
EV+
-13.1%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
45.2
Line
16
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.2%
-1.7 →
Learned
48.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 14-18
All players · Headshots
59%234 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 57.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.0 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 20.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 35.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 20.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 35.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (17.57) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.9 headshots vs line 17.0 (2/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 57%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 15.9 against a 17.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.04 vs line 16 → +1.04 (6.5%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 20% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 45.2 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.25
HS/Map
8.62
K/D
1.18
KPR
0.69
ADR
72.9
KAST
74%
HS%
56.6%
Multi-kill
17.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)8.9 · KPR 0.674 · 23.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)8.7 · KPR 0.703 · 21.8r
Required KPR to clear0.625
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.1
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.16%
Final projected kills31.05
× realistic HS% (56.6%)17.04
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-5.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16. Model: 57.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.2%
~14 HS · 38r29.5%
Normal42.8%
~17 HS · 45r50.3%
Close maps22.8%
~18 HS · 48r61.4%
Overtime12.2%
~21 HS · 54r76.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 07:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Inferno
23.4r
-2% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.8r
+2% KPR here
Total
45.2r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16 (Over) · avg 15.9 · hit 2/10 · tap a bar
16
Nearby lines
| 14 Over | 62.1% | |
| 15 Over | 57.9% | |
| 16 Over | 50.2% | OFFERED |
| 17 Over | 45.6% | below BE |
| 18 Over | 41% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16
Line movement
first 17→16-1
- Back on board17 → 16Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled17Oct 24, 07:00 AM
- First seen17Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.67
HS%
58.9%
K/D
1.18
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
51.6%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.71
HS%
60.5%
K/D
1.22
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.82
HS%
54.9%
K/D
1.27
Cache
5 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.66
HS%
47.1%
K/D
1.27
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.74
HS%
69.2%
K/D
0.98
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | The MongolZ | 11 Inferno 16-12 | 3 Nuke 2-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-18 | Falcons | 7 Anubis 8-13 | 18 Dust2 19-17 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FURIA | 4 Dust2 8-13 | 11 Inferno 10-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | 9z | 8 Cache 13-11 | 8 Inferno 13-4 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 4 Cache 13-9 | 5 Dust2 13-7 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | 9z | 7 Inferno 11-13 | 7 Nuke 1-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Spirit | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 8 Anubis 13-6 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Vitality | 6 Anubis 13-7 | 5 Cache 7-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | 1win | 14 Dust2 13-9 | 12 Anubis 13-8 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | FURIA | 10 Dust2 8-13 | 3 Mirage 13-9 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | BetBoom | 11 Mirage 13-4 | 8 Nuke 7-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Falcons | 8 Mirage 4-13 | 8 Dust2 10-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 9z | 9 Dust2 13-3 | 5 Mirage 13-11 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 7 Anubis 4-13 | 9 Inferno 13-11 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Vitality | 15 Anubis 13-7 | 10 Inferno 11-13 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | NRG | 5 Cache 13-7 | 11 Mirage 19-17 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-17 | Natus Vincere | 18 Nuke 13-8 | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | G2 | 7 Anubis 13-7 | 15 Inferno 16-19 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | M80 | 7 Dust2 13-3 | 5 Inferno 13-5 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | DENDELE | 11 Cache 13-7 | 9 Mirage 16-12 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OT |








































































































































































