KillsRisk
Line
26.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.25
Hit
45.3%
EV+
-21.6%
Edge
-0.3
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
16.57
Hit
45%
EV+
-22.1%
Edge
+0.1
L10
60%

Rifler
hfah
Brute vs BakS eSports
RISK · UNDER 26.5
▲ L5 27.8 · L20 26.3Risk · Edge -0.3 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 26.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
47%
9/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.09
Previous meeting · vs BakS eSports
No meeting with BakS eSports in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
25.3
6/12 hit at 26.5
Online · this match
27.9
3/7 hit at 26.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm hfah is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 50.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 26 kills or fewer: below 0.624 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
26.25
Raw edge
-0.3
Cons. hit
45.3%
EV+
-21.6%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.5
Line
26.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
45.3%
-4.7 →
Learned
40.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 24.5-28.5
All players · Kills
44%273 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 47.4% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 47.4% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 6% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (25.58) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 26.0 kills vs line 26.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.60, HS 62%. Next: vs BAKS, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 26.0 against a 26.5 line
Biggest risk: 26% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 26% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 26.25 vs line 26.5 → -0.25 (-0.9%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 42.5 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 5.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
13.13
HS/Map
8.11
K/D
0.97
KPR
0.6
ADR
65.8
KAST
73.4%
HS%
61.7%
Multi-kill
11.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)12.3 · KPR 0.603 · 20.7r
Map 2 (Dust2)13.2 · KPR 0.615 · 21.8r
Required KPR to clear0.624
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.89
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.18%
Final projected kills25.58
BakS eSports gives up (31 series)-5.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 26.5. Model: 51.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.7%
~22 kills · 36r78%
Normal55.2%
~27 kills · 44r48.2%
Close maps13.3%
~28 kills · 46r42.8%
Overtime5.8%
~32 kills · 52r23.9%
Match context
Oct 23, 05:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 50.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 50% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Mirage
20.7r
+1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.8r
+3% KPR here
Total
42.5r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)19.1%
Overtime5.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26.5 (Under) · avg 26.0 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
26.5
Nearby lines
| 24.5 Under | 34.6% | below BE |
| 25.5 Under | 39.9% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 45.3% | OFFERED |
| 27.5 Under | 48.6% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 51.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26.5
Line movement
first 26.5→offno change
- Pulled26.5Oct 23, 05:12 PM
- Back on board26.5 → 26.5Oct 23, 05:11 PM
- Pulled26.5Oct 23, 05:11 PM
- First seen26.5Oct 22, 05:02 PM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.6
HS%
57.7%
K/D
0.9
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
62.6%
K/D
0.97
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.71
HS%
65.5%
K/D
1.16
Cache
5 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
59.4%
K/D
1.03
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.59
HS%
64.7%
K/D
0.82
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.55
HS%
60.6%
K/D
0.87
Inferno
1 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.61
HS%
57.1%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | los kogutos | 20 Anubis 13-10 | 22 Nuke 13-11 | 42 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-17 | los kogutos | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 14 Cache 13-4 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Inner Circle Academy | 13 Anubis 10-13 | 13 Mirage 10-13 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Four Magic | 15 Mirage 13-1 | 10 Dust2 13-5 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | aimclub | 6 Mirage 6-13 | 11 Dust2 13-9 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INFURITY | 14 Inferno 10-13 | 15 Cache 16-12 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | SPARTA | 10 Dust2 13-10 | 9 Mirage 13-7 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | BET-M | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 10 Ancient 9-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | QUAZAR | 18 Anubis 16-14 | 14 Mirage 13-8 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | G2 Ares | 8 Ancient 6-13 | 13 Cache 13-11 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 17 Dust2 11-13 | 15 Anubis 13-8 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-08 | Nexus | 12 Cache 7-13 | 16 Anubis 9-13 | 28 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-08 | eSuba | 15 Anubis 13-8 | 12 Dust2 13-4 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-07 | NAVI Junior | 18 Mirage 13-4 | 15 Dust2 5-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | 9INE | 7 Mirage 3-13 | 8 Nuke 3-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | Acend | 9 Dust2 5-13 | 12 Mirage 13-5 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | 9INE | 10 Dust2 13-10 | 15 Cache 13-9 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-28 | ASTRAL | 16 Anubis 13-7 | 12 Nuke 10-13 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-28 | MOUZ NXT | 9 Nuke 13-10 | 21 Dust2 13-9 | 30 | W | Over ✗ |







































































































































































