
Rifler
bevve
The Last Resort vs G2 Ares
RISK · UNDER 29.5
▲ L5 35.0 · L20 31.3Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 29.5 (Under)
L5
0%
0/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
0%
0/3
Volatility
Low
±5.78
Previous meeting · vs G2 Ares
0/3 hit · avg 36.7 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-14 · CCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Ancient 13-10 · Inferno 8-13 · Split
35
Over 29.5 ✗
2026-09-25 · Hotspawn 10k Showdown: Closed Qualifier
Inferno 11-13 · Cache 8-13 · L
30
Over 29.5 ✗
2026-09-04 · CCT Europe 2026 Series 8
Inferno 13-9 · Cache 19-17 · W
45
Over 29.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
38.5
1/2 hit at 29.5
Online
30.4
7/18 hit at 29.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm bevve is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 29 kills or fewer: below 0.713 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (16.7%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
28.75
Raw edge
-0.8
Cons. hit
44.9%
EV+
-22.2%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.4
Line
29.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
44.9%
-8.4 →
Learned
36.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
44%332 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.8 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 40.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 17% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (26.07) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.0 kills vs line 29.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.75, HS 54%. Next: vs G2 Ares, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 32.0 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.75 vs line 29.5 → -0.75 (-2.5%)
- • Form L5 0% · L10 30% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 41.4 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.62
HS/Map
8.47
K/D
1.01
KPR
0.75
ADR
81.2
KAST
74.7%
HS%
54.2%
Multi-kill
19.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)12.2 · KPR 0.581 · 21r
Map 2 (Anubis)13.9 · KPR 0.684 · 20.4r
Required KPR to clear0.713
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.16
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.34%
Final projected kills26.07
G2 Ares gives up (69 series)+9.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 29.5. Model: 55.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.7%
~24 kills · 35r85.5%
Normal49.8%
~29 kills · 42r54.9%
Close maps5.8%
~31 kills · 44r42.4%
Overtime16.7%
~35 kills · 50r18.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 12:00 PMLANHotspawn 10k Showdown
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 24% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Inferno
21r
-18% KPR here
M2 Anubis
20.4r
-3% KPR here
Total
41.4r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.7%
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Inferno / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Under) · avg 32.0 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Under | 34.7% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 40.8% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 44.9% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Under | 51% | below BE |
| 31.5 Under | 54.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29.5
Line movement
first 29.5→offno change
- Pulled29.5Oct 24, 12:12 PM
- First seen29.5Oct 23, 11:11 PM
Map stats
Ancient
10 maps
Kills
17.1
KPR
0.77
HS%
53.2%
K/D
1.12
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.57
HS%
51.5%
K/D
0.83
Cache
6 maps
Kills
19.5
KPR
0.79
HS%
57.3%
K/D
1.11
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.69
HS%
59.2%
K/D
1
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.76
HS%
50.8%
K/D
1.05
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.7
HS%
53.3%
K/D
0.96
Mirage
2 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.62
HS%
48%
K/D
0.78
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Aces | 16 Mirage 9-13 | 18 Cache 9-13 | 34 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Sökerorg | 19 Ancient 13-4 | 21 Nuke 13-8 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Spirit Academy | 13 Ancient 7-13 | 19 Anubis 6-13 | 32 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | G2 Ares | 17 Ancient 13-10 | 18 Inferno 8-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-08 | Privateer | 13 Ancient 13-8 | 21 Cache 8-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | Saint Sinners | 9 Mirage 5-13 | 11 Inferno 13-6 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | Privateer | 23 Ancient 13-11 | 17 Nuke 13-8 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Famalicão | 12 Inferno 10-13 | 15 Ancient 7-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | G2 Ares | 16 Inferno 11-13 | 14 Cache 8-13 | 30 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Nexus | 10 Cache 5-13 | 18 Ancient 16-14 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-19 | Ryvex | 11 Inferno 8-13 | 14 Dust2 13-3 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-11 | SINNERS | 4 Dust2 2-13 | 6 Inferno 6-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | INOX Division | 23 Cache 16-14 | 13 Inferno 16-13 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-07 | MOUZ NXT | 15 Anubis 13-11 | 13 Ancient 13-6 | 28 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-04 | G2 Ares | 14 Inferno 13-9 | 31 Cache 19-17 | 45 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | Leo | 9 Nuke 5-13 | 18 Ancient 6-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Privateer | 26 Nuke 16-14 | 26 Dust2 13-9 | 52 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-19 | OG | 11 Nuke 10-13 | 10 Dust2 2-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-18 | Color | 22 Ancient 13-16 | 9 Dust2 2-13 | 31 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-18 | Strael Bora | 11 Anubis 13-8 | 19 Nuke 19-17 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | OT |








































































































































































