KillsBetter playRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.64
Hit
49.2%
EV+
-14.9%
Edge
+0.1
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
9.81
Hit
39%
EV+
-32.5%
Edge
-0.7
L10
40%
#188Ranked 188 of 277 on the board

AWPer
SunPayus
FUT vs Liquid
RISK · OVER 29.5
BEST OVER · PP 29.5PP29.5UD30.5SL29.5
≈ L5 30.2 · L20 29.6Risk · Edge +0.1 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 29.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.61
Previous meeting · vs Liquid
No meeting with Liquid in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
29.6
10/20 hit at 29.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm SunPayus is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 72.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 30+ kills: 0.749 KPR over ~39 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (56.5%) or blowout (33.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
29.64
Raw edge
+0.1
Cons. hit
49.2%
EV+
-14.9%
Rating
1.9/10
Exp. rounds
39.4
Line
29.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.2%
+8.7 →
Learned
57.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
56%332 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Blowout win risk — team 72% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 56% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.4) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.6 kills vs line 29.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 33%. Next: vs Liquid, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 29.6 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.64 vs line 29.5 → +0.14 (0.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 39.4 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.82
HS/Map
4.9
K/D
1.23
KPR
0.69
ADR
70.4
KAST
77.6%
HS%
33.1%
Multi-kill
15.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)14.6 · KPR 0.738 · 20r
Map 2 (Overpass)14.8 · KPR 0.774 · 19.4r
Required KPR to clear0.749
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.78
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.25%
Final projected kills29.4
Liquid gives up (41 series)-5.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 29.5. Model: 51% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps33.4%
~25 kills · 33r18.2%
Normal31.6%
~31 kills · 41r56.6%
Close maps22.8%
~32 kills · 42r63.9%
Overtime12.2%
~36 kills · 48r86.4%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 72.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 72% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Dust2
20r
-1% KPR here
M2 Overpass
19.4r
+4% KPR here
Total
39.4r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)33.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Overpass
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Over) · avg 29.6 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Over | 60.1% | |
| 28.5 Over | 53.3% | below BE |
| 29.5 Over | 49.2% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Over | 44.9% | below BE |
| 31.5 Over | 38.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29.5
Line movement
first 29.5→29.5no change
- First seen29.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
13 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.68
HS%
30.4%
K/D
1.14
Overpass
7 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.73
HS%
35.2%
K/D
1.5
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.66
HS%
40.9%
K/D
1.13
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.72
HS%
33.3%
K/D
1.35
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.68
HS%
30.7%
K/D
1.14
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.66
HS%
20.7%
K/D
0.97
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.86
HS%
36.8%
K/D
2.11
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | TYLOO | 19 Nuke 13-9 | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-19 | Spirit | 12 Overpass 13-9 | 20 Dust2 14-16 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-15 | Natus Vincere | 15 Dust2 11-13 | 21 Inferno 16-14 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-14 | G2 | 12 Dust2 13-7 | 9 Overpass 13-4 | 21 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | Aurora | 14 Overpass 8-13 | 14 Anubis 7-13 | 28 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-12 | G2 | 20 Overpass 13-5 | 11 Ancient 6-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Falcons | 13 Inferno 13-10 | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-08 | G2 | 17 Inferno 13-3 | 8 Mirage 13-8 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-07 | G2 | 15 Anubis 11-13 | 13 Overpass 13-7 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-05-15 | Spirit | 13 Dust2 6-13 | 26 Ancient 11-13 | 39 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-13 | Monte | 6 Ancient 13-2 | 10 Dust2 13-4 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-12 | PARIVISION | 15 Mirage 13-5 | 16 Dust2 11-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-11 | The MongolZ | 1 Dust2 2-13 | 22 Inferno 15-19 | 23 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-05-10 | MOUZ | 24 Dust2 16-14 | 10 Mirage 10-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-05-09 | G2 | 11 Ancient 13-1 | 13 Inferno 13-5 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-01 | G2 | 24 Dust2 11-13 | 12 Ancient 13-9 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-04-30 | Vitality | 26 Mirage 13-16 | 19 Overpass 13-11 | 45 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-04-29 | Astralis | 15 Dust2 13-5 | 18 Overpass 13-9 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-04-15 | Spirit | 16 Mirage 7-13 | 12 Dust2 11-13 | 28 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-04-15 | G2 | 7 Inferno 13-6 | 20 Dust2 13-1 | 27 | W | Under ✗ | BO |








































































































































































