KillsRisk
Line
26.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
27.38
Hit
44.6%
EV+
-22.7%
Edge
+0.9
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.14
Hit
49.7%
EV+
-14.0%
Edge
+0.6
L10
60%

Rifler
luchov
9z vs Vitality
RISK · OVER 26.5
BEST OVER · PP 26.5PP26.5UD28.5
▲ L5 29.8 · L20 28.3Risk · Edge +0.9 far below ±3.0 +2
Hit rates at 26.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
High
±10.04
Previous meeting · vs Vitality
0/1 hit · avg 21 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-29 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Dust2 2-13 · Nuke 6-13 · L
21
Under 26.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
28.3
10/20 hit at 26.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm luchov is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 15.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 27+ kills: 0.654 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (66.5%) or blowout (32.6%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
27.38
Raw edge
+0.9
Cons. hit
44.6%
EV+
-22.7%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.5
Line
26.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
44.6%
+8.7 →
Learned
53.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 24.5-28.5
All players · Kills
56%273 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.9 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 66% (Overs need rounds)
- Blowout loss risk — team only 16% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 66% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (26.34) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 26.8 kills vs line 25.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 60%. Next: vs Vitality, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 26.8 against a 25.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (66%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (66%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 27.38 vs line 26.5 → +0.88 (3.3%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.5 rounds · 2-0 66.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.15
HS/Map
8.53
K/D
0.93
KPR
0.67
ADR
75.9
KAST
70.5%
HS%
60.2%
Multi-kill
17%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)12.5 · KPR 0.654 · 19.4r
Map 2 (Mirage)13.8 · KPR 0.666 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.654
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.73
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.48%
Final projected kills26.34
Vitality gives up (100 series)-10.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 26.5. Model: 53.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps32.6%
~23 kills · 34r31.1%
Normal44.9%
~29 kills · 42r54.6%
Close maps10.3%
~29 kills · 43r57.9%
Overtime12.2%
~33 kills · 49r72.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 01:30 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 15.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 16% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Nuke
19.4r
+4% KPR here
M2 Mirage
21.1r
+6% KPR here
Total
40.5r
2-0 sweep66.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)32.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26.5 (Over) · avg 26.8 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
26.5
Nearby lines
| 24.5 Over | 51.3% | below BE |
| 25.5 Over | 47% | below BE |
| 26.5 Over | 44.6% | OFFERED |
| 27.5 Over | 42.2% | below BE |
| 28.5 Over | 39.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26.5
Line movement
first 25.5→26.5+1
- Back on board25.5 → 26.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled25.5Oct 24, 01:55 PM
- First seen25.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Nuke
12 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
64.1%
K/D
0.98
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.72
HS%
59.3%
K/D
1.08
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.55
HS%
56.1%
K/D
0.73
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.61
HS%
56.6%
K/D
0.86
Cache
4 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
69.8%
K/D
1.04
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.58
HS%
48.5%
K/D
0.8
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Aurora | 17 Cache 11-13 | 1 Inferno 4-13 | 18 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Falcons | 19 Nuke 9-13 | 24 Mirage 13-8 | 43 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | Aurora | 21 Inferno 13-11 | 17 Nuke 13-1 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | FURIA | 10 Nuke 7-13 | 1 Inferno 3-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | BetBoom | 17 Dust2 13-8 | 22 Mirage 13-9 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Natus Vincere | 12 Nuke 6-13 | 13 Cache 6-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | TYLOO | 18 Nuke 13-10 | 14 Mirage 13-2 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Aurora | 3 Dust2 3-13 | 18 Mirage 11-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | G2 | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 8 Ancient 8-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | MIBR | 8 Mirage 6-13 | 13 Nuke 7-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | 5star | 14 Cache 13-3 | 9 Nuke 13-4 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | Vitality | 8 Dust2 2-13 | 13 Nuke 6-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | MOUZ | 9 Cache 4-13 | 14 Nuke 7-13 | 23 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | magic | 25 Ancient 17-19 | 14 Dust2 13-10 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-15 | FURIA | 14 Dust2 6-13 | 16 Mirage 16-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-12 | PARIVISION | 18 Mirage 13-9 | 13 Inferno 13-10 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | Alliance | 18 Nuke 13-10 | 28 Inferno 17-19 | 46 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-09 | TYLOO | 16 Nuke 13-9 | 6 Mirage 7-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-05 | MIBR | 11 Nuke 13-10 | 19 Mirage 16-13 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-04 | Alliance | 14 Dust2 14-16 | 19 Inferno 7-13 | 33 | L | Over ✓ | OT |








































































































































































